AI是风口还是泡沫？一个独立开发者的冷思考（三）

最近大家都在谈AI，有人说靠AI做副业月入几万，也有人说AI是泡沫，投进去都打水漂。
作为一个独立开发者，也一直在跟AI打交道。今天想聊一聊这个话题：AI到底是风口，还是泡沫？

先说自己的观点：AI不是风口，也不是泡沫，它更像是放大镜，放大了人的能力，也放大了人的差距。自己能做的，不是跟风，而是有没有能力用AI解决真实问题。

【二】
为什么是风口？

1、对个人：AI让效率提升、门槛降低，一个人就能干过去一个团队做的事情。我本身就是个很好的例子，今年七月份开始做独立开发，上线了一款AI产品：楼里，并且开源了两个实践总结的知识库：《独立开发者》和《AI实践》。这在过去，用四个月时间几乎不可能做到。

2、对企业：很多过去繁重的流程变成自动化，客服、销售到研发，越来越多环节可以交给AI处理。创新的成本也会降低，原本需要团队调研、设计、开发的过程，现在AI能极大缩短周期，让中小企业也能快速试错。组织层级能缩减，AI让决策和执行之间的层级减少，让更多小团队有了机会。

3、对社会：知识与资源获取更加方便，AI让教育、医疗、法律等知识更容易推送给普通人群。催生新产业与岗位，招聘岗位中出现Prompt工程师、AI产品经理、AI运营、AI工程师等全新职业。个人创造也被重新定义，过去需要工具、专业、经验、技术；现在只要有想法、懂提示词，人人都能参与创造。

【三】
为什么是泡沫？

人人都有机会了，意味着人人都能做，这必然导致“同质化”的产品或竞争增多。用开发的角度打个比方，现在什么都要挂上AI，如：AI写作、AI绘画、AI客服工具、AI办公等等。

这使得这类的产品最终都会趋于一致，甚至大家功能都一致，看不出有什么本质区别。

最终导致产品质量低，用户付费的意愿自然就会降低。甚至别说付费，很多产品根本没人去用。

如此就会形成一个恶性循环，门槛低导致竞争多；竞争多导致成功率低。这个循序不仅适用做产品的行业，也适用于AI滋生的各行各业。

所以，它看起来是风口，但是踩进去都不知道风往哪个方向吹。
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