{"id":90866,"date":"2026-08-06T07:48:39","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T23:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/90866.html"},"modified":"2026-08-06T07:48:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T23:48:39","slug":"%e5%bd%93%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e5%85%8d%e8%b4%b9%e8%80%8c%e8%b4%a6%e5%8d%95%e7%88%86%e7%82%b8%ef%bc%9a%e6%8e%a8%e7%90%86%e4%be%a7%e7%9a%84-jevons-%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba%e4%b8%8e%e7%ae%97%e5%8a%9b%e9%93%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/90866.html","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u800c\u8d26\u5355\u7206\u70b8\uff1a\u63a8\u7406\u4fa7\u7684 Jevons \u6096\u8bba\u4e0e\u7b97\u529b\u94fe\u5229\u6da6\u6c60"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba\u5148\u884c<\/p>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u5355\u4ef7\u5d29\u4e86 10\u201324 \u500d&#xff0c;\u4f46 Agent \u5355\u4efb\u52a1 token \u6d88\u8017\u6da8\u4e86 5\u201330 \u500d&#xff0c;\u4f01\u4e1a\u63a8\u7406\u9884\u7b97\u5360 AI \u7b97\u529b\u5f00\u652f\u7ea6 2\/3\u3001\u5360\u4f01\u4e1a AI \u9884\u7b97\u7ea6 85%\u3002\u603b\u8d26\u5355\u6ca1\u584c&#xff0c;\u662f\u4f4e\u4ef7\u5f15\u7206\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u800c\u7b97\u529b\u94fe&#xff08;GPU \/ HBM \/ CoWoS&#xff09;\u662f&#034;\u5356\u94f2\u5b50&#034;\u7684&#xff0c;\u603b\u6c60\u5b50\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u539a\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u3001\u7b97\u529b\u80a1\u5374\u5728\u6da8\u3002[\u7efc\u5408\u672c\u53f7 2026-08-01 \u8bdd\u9898\u5730\u56fe \/ WebSearch \u805a\u5408&#xff0c;\u7f6e\u4fe1\u4e2d]<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>\u4e8c\u3001\u4e24\u79cd\u723d\u6587\u90fd\u6f0f\u4e86&#034;\u603b\u91cf&#034;<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u723d\u6587 A&#xff08;AI \u592a\u8d35\u8981\u5d29&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u201c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7528\u4e0d\u8d77 AI&#xff0c;\u6ce1\u6cab\u5fc5\u7834\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u723d\u6587 B&#xff08;\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u515a&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u4e86&#xff0c;\u7b97\u529b\u6ca1\u4eba\u8981\u4e86&#xff0c;\u82af\u7247\u80a1\u5230\u9876\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5b9e\u9645&#xff1a;\u6a21\u578b\u5355\u4ef7\u786e\u5b9e\u5d29\u4e86&#xff0c;\u4f46\u8c03\u7528\u91cf\u66b4\u6da8\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u3002Jevons \u5728\u300a\u7164\u70ad\u95ee\u9898\u300b\u91cc\u5199&#xff1a;\u84b8\u6c7d\u673a\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u8ba9\u7164\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c&#xff0c;\u7ed3\u679c\u82f1\u56fd\u7164\u6d88\u8017\u603b\u91cf\u4e0d\u964d\u53cd\u5347\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fbf\u5b9c\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u65e0\u6570\u65b0\u7528\u9014\u3002\u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u964d\u4ef7&#xff0c;\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u3002[\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;Jevons 1865 \u539f\u8457\u673a\u7406 \/ \u672c\u53f7\u63a8\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6846\u67b6]<\/p>\n<p>\u504f\u5dee&#xff1a;\u4e24\u6d3e\u90fd\u76ef\u7740&#034;\u5355\u4ef7&#034;&#xff0c;\u6ca1\u4eba\u76ef&#034;\u603b\u8d26\u5355&#034;\u30022026 \u5e74\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\u2014\u2014\u5355\u4ef7\u584c\u4e86&#xff0c;\u603b\u91cf\u70b8\u4e86&#xff0c;\u7b97\u529b\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u4e0d\u964d\u53cd\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>\u4e09\u3001\u673a\u5236&#xff1a;\u4e09\u4e2a\u9f7f\u8f6e\u54ac\u51fa&#034;\u8d26\u5355\u7206\u70b8&#034;<\/h3>\n<h4>3.1 Jevons \u5728\u63a8\u7406\u4fa7&#xff1a;\u4fbf\u5b9c\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u5f15\u7206\u5668<\/h4>\n<p>1848 \u5e74\u7164\u70ad\u964d\u4ef7\u2192\u7528\u91cf\u66b4\u6da8\u2192\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u5347\u30022026 \u5e74\u6a21\u578b\u5355\u4ef7\u964d 10\u201324 \u500d\u2192\u8c03\u7528\u91cf&#xff08;token&#xff09;\u66b4\u6da8\u2192\u7b97\u529b\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u5347\u3002\u964d\u4ef7\u4e0d\u6d88\u706d\u9700\u6c42&#xff0c;\u5b83\u521b\u9020\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ece&#034;\u5076\u5c14\u8c03\u7528&#034;\u53d8\u6210&#034;\u5168\u5458 Agent \u5316&#034;&#xff0c;token \u603b\u6c60\u5b50\u88ab\u4f4e\u4ef7\u70b8\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jevons \u603b\u6210\u672c\u516c\u5f0f&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u6210\u672c &#061; \u5355\u4ef7_per_token \u00d7 \u8c03\u7528\u91cf<br \/>\n       &#061; (\u5355\u4ef7\u2193 10\u201324x) \u00d7 (\u8c03\u7528\u91cf\u2191 5\u201330x)<br \/>\n       \u2192 \u51c0\u65b9\u5411&#xff1a;\u603b\u6210\u672c \u2191&#xff08;\u9664\u975e\u8c03\u7528\u91cf\u589e\u901f &lt; \u5355\u4ef7\u964d\u5e45&#xff0c;\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u53cd\u5411&#xff09;<\/p>\n<h4>3.2 Agent \u7684&#034;Token \u9ed1\u6d1e&#034;<\/h4>\n<p>\u5355\u4efb\u52a1\u591a\u6b65\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u5de5\u5177\u8c03\u7528\u3001\u91cd\u8bd5\u3001\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u7d2f\u79ef&#xff0c;\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a Agent \u4efb\u52a1\u7684 token \u6d88\u8017\u662f\u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54\u7684 5\u201330 \u500d\u3002[\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;\u884c\u4e1a\u5b9e\u6d4b\/\u673a\u6784\u7814\u62a5 consensus&#xff0c;\u7f6e\u4fe1\u4e2d] Gartner \u8c03\u7814\u663e\u793a 88% \u7684\u4f01\u4e1a Agent \u9879\u76ee\u6ca1\u6709\u91cf\u5316 ROI\u2014\u2014\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u70e7 token&#xff0c;\u4f46&#034;\u503c\u4e0d\u503c&#034;\u8fd8\u6ca1\u7b97\u6e05\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f&#034;\u8d26\u5355\u7206\u70b8&#034;\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Agent \u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u672c\u62c6\u89e3&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p>\u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54\u6210\u672c   &#061; prompt_tokens \u00d7 p_in &#043; completion_tokens \u00d7 p_out<br \/>\nAgent \u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u672c &#061; \u03a3(\u6bcf\u6b65 prompt&#043;completion) \u00d7 \u91cd\u8bd5\u7cfb\u6570 \u00d7 \u5de5\u5177\u8c03\u7528\u6b65\u6570<br \/>\n              \u2248 \u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54 \u00d7 (5\u201330)   # \u591a\u6b65&#043;\u91cd\u8bd5&#043;\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u7d2f\u79ef<\/p>\n<h4>3.3 \u5229\u6da6\u6c60\u6697\u7ebf&#xff1a;\u7b97\u529b\u94fe\u662f\u5356\u94f2\u5b50\u7684<\/h4>\n<p>\u63a8\u7406\u9884\u7b97\u5360\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347&#xff0c;\u4f46\u94b1\u6700\u7ec8\u6d41\u5411\u7b97\u529b\u94fe&#xff1a;GPU&#xff08;\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe 5.07 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u503c\u3001PE 31.7&#xff09;\u3001HBM&#xff08;\u957f\u946b 3.28 \u4e07\u4ebf\u3001PE 113.6&#xff1b;\u7f8e\u5149\u6bdb\u5229\u7387 84%&#xff09;\u3001\u5149\u6a21\u5757&#xff08;\u4e2d\u9645\u65ed\u521b 1.17 \u4e07\u4ebf\u3001PE 78&#xff09;\u3002[\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;C2 \u4f30\u503c\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6570\u636e\u5e93 2026-07 \u622a\u9762 \/ \u7f8e\u5149\u8d22\u62a5] \u6a21\u578b\u5c42\u5728\u6253\u4ef7\u683c\u6218\u3001\u5229\u6da6\u8584\u5982\u7eb8&#xff1b;\u7b97\u529b\u5c42\u5356\u94f2\u5b50\u3001\u5229\u6da6\u6c60\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u539a\u3002\u63a5\u672c\u53f7\u5df2\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u300aAgent ROI\u300b\u2014\u2014Agent \u843d\u5730\u7684 171% \u56de\u62a5\u9884\u671f&#xff0c;\u662f\u9760\u7b97\u529b\u94fe\u6269\u4ea7\u652f\u6491\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>3.4 \u6210\u672c\u89c2\u6d4b\u4ee3\u7801&#xff08;\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u590d\u7528&#xff09;<\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"token keyword\">def<\/span> <span class=\"token function\">estimate_agent_cost<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span><br \/>\n    base_tokens<span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">int<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span>        <span class=\"token comment\"># \u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54 token \u6570<\/span><br \/>\n    steps<span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">int<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span>              <span class=\"token comment\"># Agent \u6b65\u6570&#xff08;\u591a\u6b65\u63a8\u7406&#043;\u5de5\u5177\u8c03\u7528&#xff09;<\/span><br \/>\n    retry_factor<span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">float<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span>     <span class=\"token comment\"># \u91cd\u8bd5\u7cfb\u6570&#xff08;1.0 &#061; \u4e0d\u91cd\u8bd5&#xff09;<\/span><br \/>\n    price_per_1k_in<span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">float<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span>  <span class=\"token comment\"># \u8f93\u5165\u5355\u4ef7 $\/1k tokens<\/span><br \/>\n    price_per_1k_out<span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">float<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token comment\"># \u8f93\u51fa\u5355\u4ef7 $\/1k tokens<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span><br \/>\n    <span class=\"token triple-quoted-string string\">&#034;&#034;&#034;Agent \u4efb\u52a1\u76f8\u5bf9\u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54\u7684\u6210\u672c\u653e\u5927\u500d\u6570\u3002&#034;&#034;&#034;<\/span><br \/>\n    single <span class=\"token operator\">&#061;<\/span> base_tokens <span class=\"token operator\">*<\/span> <span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span>price_per_1k_in <span class=\"token operator\">&#043;<\/span> price_per_1k_out<span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span> <span class=\"token operator\">\/<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">1000<\/span><br \/>\n    agent  <span class=\"token operator\">&#061;<\/span> single <span class=\"token operator\">*<\/span> steps <span class=\"token operator\">*<\/span> retry_factor<br \/>\n    <span class=\"token keyword\">return<\/span> <span class=\"token punctuation\">{<\/span><br \/>\n        <span class=\"token string\">&#034;\u5355\u6b21\u95ee\u7b54\u6210\u672c&#034;<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">round<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span>single<span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">4<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span><br \/>\n        <span class=\"token string\">&#034;Agent\u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u672c&#034;<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">round<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span>agent<span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">4<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span><br \/>\n        <span class=\"token string\">&#034;\u653e\u5927\u500d\u6570&#034;<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">:<\/span> <span class=\"token builtin\">round<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span>steps <span class=\"token operator\">*<\/span> retry_factor<span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">1<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span><br \/>\n    <span class=\"token punctuation\">}<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"token comment\"># \u793a\u4f8b&#xff1a;base&#061;2000, steps&#061;12&#xff08;\u542b\u5de5\u5177\u8c03\u7528&#xff09;, retry&#061;1.3<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"token keyword\">print<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span>estimate_agent_cost<span class=\"token punctuation\">(<\/span><span class=\"token number\">2000<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">12<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">1.3<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">0.001<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">,<\/span> <span class=\"token number\">0.002<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><span class=\"token punctuation\">)<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"token comment\"># \u2192 \u653e\u5927\u500d\u6570 \u2248 15.6x&#xff0c;\u843d\u5728\u884c\u4e1a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684 5\u201330x \u533a\u95f4<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>3.5 \u4e09\u5c42\u5bf9\u7167<\/h4>\n<table>\n<tr>\u5c42\u7ea7\u73b0\u8c61\u5229\u6da6\u5f52\u5c5e\u6570\u636e<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u6a21\u578b\u5c42<\/td>\n<td>\u5355\u4ef7\u5d29 10\u201324x<\/td>\n<td>\u5229\u6da6\u8584<\/td>\n<td>DeepSeek\/Kimi\/OpenAI \u964d\u4ef7 [\u672c\u53f7 07-30]<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Agent \u5c42<\/td>\n<td>token \u8017 5\u201330x<\/td>\n<td>ROI \u672a\u91cf\u5316<\/td>\n<td>88% \u65e0\u91cf\u5316 ROI&#xff08;Gartner&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7b97\u529b\u5c42<\/td>\n<td>\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u5347<\/td>\n<td>\u5229\u6da6\u6c60\u539a<\/td>\n<td>\u4e2d\u9645\u65ed\u521b PE78 \/ \u957f\u946b PE113.6&#xff08;C2&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>\u56db\u3001\u6848\u4f8b&#xff1a;\u628a&#034;\u514d\u8d39&#034;\u548c&#034;\u7206\u70b8&#034;\u6446\u4e00\u8d77<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u6848\u4f8b A\u2014\u2014\u4ef7\u683c\u6218\u7684\u6c34\u7535\u8d26\u5355&#xff1a;\u4e00\u4eba\u516c\u53f8\u7528 DeepSeek&#xff0c;\u8868\u9762\u6708\u8d39 200 \u5143&#xff0c;\u4f46\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u8d85\u9650 &#043; \u91cd\u8bd5 &#043; \u4eba\u5de5\u5ba1\u6838\u56de\u8def&#xff0c;\u771f\u5b9e\u6708\u6210\u672c 842 \u5143&#xff0c;\u662f\u8868\u9762 4 \u500d&#xff08;\u672c\u53f7 2026-07-24\u300aDeepSeek \u81ea\u6765\u6c34\u300b&#xff09;\u3002\u5fae\u89c2\u7248&#034;\u8d26\u5355\u7206\u70b8&#034;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u6848\u4f8b B\u2014\u2014\u7b97\u529b\u80a1\u4e0d\u8dcc\u53cd\u6da8&#xff1a;\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u53d9\u4e8b\u6700\u76db\u7684 2026 \u4e0a\u534a\u5e74&#xff0c;\u4e2d\u9645\u65ed\u521b\u5e02\u503c\u7ad9\u4e0a 1.17 \u4e07\u4ebf\u3001\u957f\u946b 3.28 \u4e07\u4ebf\u2014\u2014\u5356\u94f2\u5b50\u903b\u8f91\u672a\u88ab&#034;\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39&#034;\u524a\u5f31&#xff0c;\u53cd\u800c\u88ab token \u603b\u91cf\u6269\u5f20\u5f3a\u5316\u3002[\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;C2 2026-07 \u622a\u9762]<\/li>\n<li>\u6848\u4f8b C\u2014\u2014NVDA \u7684\u4ece\u5bb9&#xff1a;\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe PE \u4ec5 31.7&#xff08;\u4f4e\u4e8e\u56fd\u4ea7 GPU&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5176\u5229\u6da6\u6355\u83b7\u5df2\u5151\u73b0\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u514d\u8d39\u4e0d\u6253\u57ae NVDA&#xff0c;\u6253\u57ae\u7684\u662f&#034;\u4ee5\u4e3a\u514d\u8d39&#061;\u7b97\u529b\u65e0\u7528&#034;\u7684\u8bef\u5224\u3002[\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;C2 \/ \u7f8e\u80a1\u8d22\u62a5]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>\u4e94\u3001\u8bda\u5b9e B \u9762<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u53cd\u65b9&#xff1a;\u82e5\u63a8\u7406\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347&#xff08;\u5c0f\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u84b8\u998f\u3001KV-cache \u4f18\u5316&#xff09;\u5feb\u4e8e\u8c03\u7528\u91cf\u589e\u957f&#xff0c;token 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\u6096\u8bba&#xff1a;\u8d44\u6e90\u8d8a\u4fbf\u5b9c&#xff0c;\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u8d26\u5355\u4ef7\u964d\u4e86&#xff0c;\u603b\u91cf\u70b8\u4e86&#xff0c;\u603b\u8d26\u5355\u6ca1\u584c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Q2&#xff1a;Jevons \u6096\u8bba\u5728 AI \u63a8\u7406\u4fa7\u771f\u7684\u6210\u7acb\u5417&#xff1f;<br \/>\nA&#xff1a;\u673a\u7406\u6210\u7acb\u30021865 \u5e74 Jevons \u89c2\u5bdf\u7164\u70ad&#xff1a;\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u2192\u7164\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u2192\u7528\u91cf\u66b4\u6da8\u2192\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u5347\u30022026 \u5e74\u6a21\u578b\u964d\u4ef7\u2192\u8c03\u7528\u91cf\u66b4\u6da8\u2192\u7b97\u529b\u603b\u6d88\u8017\u5347&#xff0c;\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5b83\u662f&#034;\u65b9\u5411\u6027&#034;\u89c4\u5f8b&#xff0c;\u4e0d\u662f&#034;\u5300\u901f&#034;\u89c4\u5f8b\u2014\u2014\u6269\u5f20\u901f\u5ea6\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e Agent 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