\u9996\u5148\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u9610\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u7684\u6982\u5ff5，\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u957f\u671f\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f，\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u6709\u5e8f\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684，\u5176\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fdb\u6b65，\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347，\u6e10\u8fdb\u5f0f\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5176\u662f\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u91cf\u53d8\u800c\u79ef\u7d2f\u5230\u96f6\u754c\u70b9\u4ea7\u751f\u8d28\u53d8\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u65e8\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u51fa\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u8d28\u53d8\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5171\u5728\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u9a7e\u9a6d\u590d\u6742\u6027，\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u5176\u4f4e\u5c42\u4ee3\u7801\u3002\u65e2\u5f80\u7814\u7a76\u4ec5\u5728\u5bf9\u5355\u5468\u671f\u6216\u4e24\u5468\u671f\u5173\u8054\u6709\u6240\u63a2\u8ba8，\u4f46\u5728\u201c\u6280\u672f-\u653f\u7b56-\u5730\u7f18\u201d\u4e09\u91cd\u9769\u547d\u53e0\u52a0\u7684\u5f53\u4e0b，\u666e\u901a\u7ebf\u6027\u53e0\u52a0\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf8\u5982\u201c\u6280\u672f\u6210\u719f\u5374\u56e0\u5236\u88c1\u800c\u7a92\u606f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\u5374\u56e0\u8ba4\u77e5\u56fa\u5316\u800c\u9677\u5165\u5185\u5377\u201d\u7b49\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e76\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u5e73\u884c，\u800c\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n
\n
\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u6218\u7565\u6846\u67b6，\u5176\u539f\u7406\u662f\u662f：<\/p>\n
\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u9047\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669，\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u53ca\u5730\u7f18\u4e94\u5927\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4，\u5176\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u77ac\u95f4\u7684\u5171\u632f\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u8f6c\u53d8\u601d\u8def\u3002\u7531\u5355\u5468\u671f\u5230\u4e94\u5468\u671f，\u7531\u9759\u6001\u5230\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u52aa\u529b\u5bfb\u627e\u67d0\u4e00\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f\u53c2\u751f\u7684\u673a\u9047\u7a97\u53e3，\u5e76\u4f5c\u51fa\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64，\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u5957\u6a21\u578b，\u5176\u53ef\u88ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u3001\u53ef\u91cf\u5316，\u5e76\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u72ec\u7acb\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u63a2\u7d22\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u95ee\u9898？\u6218\u7565\u51b3\u7b56\u80fd\u5426\u4ece\u4e00\u95e8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u827a\u672f，\u9010\u6b65\u63a8\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6027\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n
2. \u7406\u8bba\u6784\u5efa：\u4ece\u4e94\u7ef4\u7a7a\u95f4\u5230\u4ea4\u4e92\u7f51\u7edc<\/p>\n
2.1 \u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5：\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u4e0e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u6743\u91cd\u77e9\u9635\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u52a8\u6001\u601d\u7ef4\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u77e9\u9635\u4e2d\u3002\u8be5\u77e9\u9635\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a5\u00d75\u7684\u65b9\u9635，\u5176\u5143\u7d20\u52a8\u6001\u6027\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u6bb5\u5185，\u5468\u671f i \u5bf9\u5468\u671f j \u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3002（ \u03c9_ij \u2208 [-1, +1] ）<\/p>\n
\u4f8b\u5982，\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u9636\u6bb5，\u77e9\u9635\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6570\u503c：<\/p>\n
\u03c9_PT（\u8868\u5f81\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u5f71\u54cd）\u2248 +0.7<\/p>\n
\u03c9_GT（\u8868\u5f81\u5730\u7f18\u5bf9\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u5f71\u54cd）\u2248 -0.6\u3002<\/p>\n
（\u03a9 \u77e9\u9635\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u5e76\u975e\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684，\u9700\u8981\u6839\u636e\u5177\u4f53\u884c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u9636\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u5224\u65ad\u3002）<\/p>\n
\u3010\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u6743\u91cd\u77e9\u9635\u89c1\u9644\u5f55A\u3011<\/p>\n
\u57fa\u4e8e \u03a9 \u77e9\u9635\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b，\u53ef\u5f52\u7eb3\u51fa\u82e5\u5e72 \u201c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d ，\u5b83\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\u6216\u98ce\u9669\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u9a71\u52a8\u903b\u8f91：<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u578b：T \u2192 E \u2192 C \u3002<\/p>\n
\u8ba4\u77e5\u6ce1\u6cab\u53cd\u566c\u578b：C\u2192\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u2192\u4f9b\u5927\u4e8e\u9700<\/p>\n
\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b：P \u2192 (E & T) \u2192 C\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b：G \u2192 P \u2192 \u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u7ec4(T) \u3002<\/p>\n
\u7efc\u5408\u9707\u8361\u578b：\u65e0\u660e\u663e\u5176\u4e3b\u5bfc\u56e0\u7d20，\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528<\/p>\n
（\u5176\u7c7b\u578b\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u53d8，\u9700\u4e0d\u65ad\u6839\u636e\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u6f14\u5316）<\/p>\n
\u8bca\u65ad\u65f6，\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u786e\u5b9a\u76f8\u4f4d\u5750\u6807，\u66f4\u9700\u5224\u65ad\u5f53\u524d\u5904\u4e8e\u4f55\u79cd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f，\u8fd9\u76f4\u63a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u6218\u7565\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3010\u6743\u4f4d\u53d8\u5316\u8868\u8be6\u7ec6\u89c1\u9644\u5f55B\u3011<\/p>\n
\n
\n
2.2 \u4e09\u5c42\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u4f53\u7cfb<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u6570\u636e\u7531\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53ef\u5f97\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u95ee\u9898，\u7814\u53d1\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e09\u5c42\u6570\u636e\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u4f53\u7cfb：<\/p>\n
L1：\u7406\u60f3\u6307\u6807（\u7406\u8bba\u6807\u6746）<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u5c42\u7ea7\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5e94\u88ab\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u5ff5，\u5982\u9700\u6c42\u5bc6\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\u3001\u6280\u672f\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\u6269\u6563\u7387\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n
L2：\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6570（\u5b9e\u64cd\u6838\u5fc3）<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u5f20，\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d，\u4f18\u5148\u91c7\u7eb3\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u732e，\u4ee5\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u5b9e\u8df5\u53cd\u590d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u6743\u5a01\u6307\u6570，\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f8b\u5982：<\/p>\n
\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f（P）：\u63a8\u8350\u91c7\u7528\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6307\u6570，\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u3001\u8fde\u7eed\u4e14\u53ef\u56de\u6eaf\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5730\u7f18\u5468\u671f（G）：\u63a8\u8350\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6570，\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u7f18\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u4ed6\u5468\u671f（E, T, C）：<\/p>\n
\u5982\u884c\u4e1a\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f（\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f）\u3001\u7814\u53d1\u5f3a\u5ea6（\u79d1\u6280\u5468\u671f）\u3001\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u6d4b\u79bb\u6563\u5ea6（\u8ba4\u77e5\u5468\u671f）\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n
L3：\u5b9a\u6027\u4fe1\u53f7\u6e05\u5355（\u98ce\u9669\u4fee\u8fb9）<\/p>\n
\u9488\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u96be\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\u4f46\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u53d8\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u8fdb\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u8fd0\u7b97，\u4f46\u53ef\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u60c5\u5883\u5316\u4fee\u6b63，\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n
2.3\u591a\u5c42\u8fc7\u6ee4\u4e0e\u52a8\u6001\u52a0\u6743\u7b97\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u5c42\u8fc7\u6ee4\u4e0e\u52a8\u6001\u52a0\u6743\u7b97\u6cd5， \u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u5171\u632f\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6307\u6570（RSI\u2295）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3010\u5171\u632f\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u8be6\u7ec6\u89c1\u9644\u5f55C\u3011<\/p>\n
\u9488\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e00\u5468\u671f（E, T, C, P, G），\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u7684\u591a\u6307\u6807\u8bc4\u5206\u5361\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u8bc4\u5206\u5361\u4ee5\u5404\u5468\u671f\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684L2\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6570\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u8f93\u5165，\u540c\u65f6\u7efc\u5408\u53c2\u8003L1\u7406\u8bba\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u65b9\u5411\u4ee5\u53caL3\u5b9a\u6027\u4fe1\u53f7\u6e05\u5355\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4fe1\u606f，\u6700\u7ec8\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a0\u2011100\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5f97\u5206，\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5468\u671f\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u201d，\u5206\u522b\u8bb0\u4e3a S_E\u3001S_T\u3001S_C\u3001S_P\u3001S_G\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3010\u5468\u671f\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u8be6\u7ec6\u89c1\u9644\u5f55D\u3011<\/p>\n
\u52a8\u6001\u52a0\u6743\u5c42：<\/p>\n
\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u7684 \u201c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d，\u67e5\u627e\u9884\u8bbe\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u65b9\u6848\u5e93\u4e2d\u6240\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b (W_E, W_T, W_C, W_P, W_G)\u3002\u6743\u91cd\u4e4b\u548c\u4e3a1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b，\u5404\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b，\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd\u4e3a\u6700\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b，\u79d1\u6280\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd（W_\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd\u6b21\u5b50\u3002\u800c\u5728\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d，\u5730\u7f18\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd\u5219\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc，\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd\u6b21\u4e4b，\u5176\u4f59\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u76f8\u5e94\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7efc\u5408\u5f97\u51fa：RSI\u2295 = \u03a3(W_i \u00d7 S_i)\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f18\u70b9：\u6297\u5355\u6307\u6807\u566a\u58f0\u5e72\u6270\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a，\u6743\u91cd\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e，\u7ed3\u679c\u76f4\u89c2\u6613\u61c2\u3002（\u53ef\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u77db\u76fe\u4e0b，\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u7efc\u5408\u72b6\u6001\u767e\u5206\u5236\u5f97\u5206\u201d）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u5386\u53f2\u56de\u6d4b，\u53ef\u5efa\u7acbRSI\u2295\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u9608\u503c（\u5982：\u89c2\u671b\u533a<50，\u6d4b\u8bd5\u533a50-70，\u6295\u5165\u533a>70）\u3002<\/p>\n
（\u884c\u52a8\u9608\u503c\u6839\u636e\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5fae\u8c03）<\/p>\n
3. \u51b3\u7b56\u7cfb\u7edf：\u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u5f15\u64ce<\/p>\n
\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d1024\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027，\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ed8\u753b\u5e76\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9996\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u8bc4\u5206，\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc4\u5206\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5224\u65adA：\u901a\u8fc7\u89c4\u5219\u8fdb\u884c\u5224\u65ad\u6700\u9700\u8981\u4f18\u5148\u5e94\u5bf9\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u56e0\u7d20（\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u6280\u672f\u74f6\u9888\u6216\u8005\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5224\u65adB：\u6839\u636e\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u77db\u76fe，\u8fdb\u5165\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5b50\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f8b\u5982：<\/p>\n
\u9ad8\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u5b50\u56fe：<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95ee\u9898？<\/p>\n
\u5173\u952e\u539f\u6750\u6599\u662f\u5426\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5236\u88c1\u6e05\u5355\u5185？<\/p>\n
\u5207\u6362\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u65f6\u673a？<\/p>\n
\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5bf9\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6？<\/p>\n
\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54，\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u6218\u7565\u52a8\u4f5c\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u7684\u3002\u8981\u5305\u542b\u6838\u5fc3\u6218\u7565\u4e3e\u63aa\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5408\u7406\u533a\u95f4\u3001\u5173\u952e\u5b9e\u65bd\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fc5\u987b\u6301\u7eed\u76d1\u63a7\u7684\u5173\u952e\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u4efd\u53ef\u6267\u884c\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u8ba1\u5212\u6982\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u60c5\u5883\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u6bd4，\u63d0\u4f9b\u57fa\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3010\u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u8be6\u7ec6\u89c1\u9644\u5f55E\u3011<\/p>\n
4. \u5b9e\u8bc1\u9a8c\u8bc1：\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u534f\u8bae<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u63d0\u5347\u5b66\u672f\u4e25\u8c28\u6027，\u672c\u6846\u67b6\u9644\u5e26\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u7684 \u201c\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u68c0\u9a8c\u534f\u8bae\u201d：<\/p>\n
\u6307\u5b9a\u516c\u5f00\u6570\u636e\u6e90：\u6240\u6709\u68c0\u9a8c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5b8c\u5168\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6：<\/p>\n
E：\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u3001OECD\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3002<\/p>\n
T：OECD\u4e13\u5229\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3001\u5f6d\u535a\u884c\u4e1a\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n
C：\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40（NBER）\u201c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u6b67\u5ea6\u201d\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3001GDELT\u5a92\u4f53\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n
P：\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6307\u6570（EPU）\u5b98\u65b9\u7f51\u7ad9\u6570\u636e[4]\u3002<\/p>\n
G：\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6570（GPR）\u5b98\u65b9\u7f51\u7ad9\u6570\u636e[1]\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u68c0\u9a8c\u6d41\u7a0b：<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65（\u6570\u636e\u51c6\u5907）：\u9009\u62e9\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u884c\u4e1a，\u4f7f\u75281995-2010\u5e74\u6570\u636e，\u786e\u5b9a\u6700\u4f73\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u4e0e\u6743\u91cd\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65（\u6837\u672c\u5916\u6d4b\u8bd5）：\u5c5e\u4e8e2011-2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e，\u5f97\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56，\u5224\u65ad\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65（\u7ee9\u6548\u8bc4\u4f30）：\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u4e70\u5165\u6301\u6709\u548c\u52a8\u91cf\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u4e0a（\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3001\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387\u3001\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4）\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n
5. \u4e8c\u9636\u4e94\u7ef4\u6218\u7565：\u5e02\u573a\u5b66\u4e60\u6548\u5e94\u4e0b\u7684\u535a\u5f08<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5177\u5907\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u611f\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e34\u754c\u503c，\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u5165\u4e8c\u9636\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f20\u7edf\u5171\u632f\u7a97\u53e3\u56e0\u96c6\u4f53\u9884\u5224\u800c\u6536\u7a84，\u751a\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5730\u7f18\u53cd\u8eab\u6027：\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u666e\u904d\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u56e4\u8d27\u3001\u64a4\u8d44\u7b49\u884c\u4e3a，\u53cd\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u8131\u94a9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u653f\u7b56\u5957\u5229：\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u9884\u5224\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u91d1\u63d0\u524d\u6d8c\u5165，\u53ef\u80fd\u50ac\u751f\u653f\u7b56\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab，\u5e76\u4f7fPII\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u6548\u679c\u63d0\u524d\u900f\u652f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e94\u5bf9\u6b64，\u9700\u91c7\u7528\u4e8c\u9636\u4e94\u7ef4\u7b56\u7565：<\/p>\n
\u76f8\u4f4d\u9884\u5224\u4e0e\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u5229\u7528：<\/p>\n
\u5728\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7b49\u5f85\u4fe1\u53f7\u660e\u786e\u65f6，\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5728\u4f4e\u8c37\u672b\u671f\u5e03\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n
\u591a\u533a\u57df\u76f8\u4f4d\u7ec4\u5408\u5bf9\u51b2：<\/p>\n
\u6784\u5efa\u8de8\u5730\u7f18\u533a\u57df\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408：\u7ec4\u5408 = \u56fd\u5185\u76f8\u4f4d\u8d44\u4ea7+ \u533a\u57df\u8d44\u4ea7+ \u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7，\u6839\u636e\u5168\u7403\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u628a\u9e21\u86cb\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7bee\u5b50\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3b\u52a8\u8ba4\u77e5\u5468\u671f\u7ba1\u7406：<\/p>\n
\u5728\u5171\u8bc6\u9010\u6e10\u56fa\u5316\u65f6，\u53d1\u5e03\u53cd\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0，\u5ef6\u7f13\u8fdb\u7a0b，\u5b9e\u73b0\u8ba4\u77e5\u5957\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n
6. \u5e94\u7528\u8fc1\u79fb：\u6e10\u8fdb\u5f0f\u4ea7\u54c1\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe<\/p>\n
\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u590d\u6742\u6027，\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u5206\u56db\u9636\u6bb5\u63a8\u8fdb\u7684 \u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u5f0f\u4ea7\u54c1\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u201d，\u4f9b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53c2\u8003：<\/p>\n
\n
1：\u601d\u7ef4\u5bfc\u5165（0-6\u4e2a\u6708）<\/p>\n
\u4ea7\u51fa：\u201c\u4e94\u7ef4\u6218\u7565\u7b80\u62a5\u201d\u6a21\u677f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u884c\u52a8：\u5728\u5b63\u5ea6\u6218\u7565\u4f1a\u4e0a，\u5f3a\u5236\u8981\u6c42\u6309E\u3001T\u3001C\u3001P\u3001G\u4e94\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6，\u7528\u4e00\u9875\u7eb8\u62a5\u544a\u6700\u65b0\u52a8\u6001\u4e0e\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u6807：\u5728\u5168\u7ec4\u7ec7\u57f9\u517b\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u4e60\u60ef\u3002<\/p>\n
2：\u6570\u5b57\u4eea\u8868\u76d8（6-18\u4e2a\u6708）<\/p>\n
\u4ea7\u51fa：\u201c\u6218\u7565\u5065\u5eb7\u5ea6\u4eea\u8868\u76d81.0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u884c\u52a8：\u63a5\u5165L2\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6570，\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5c55\u793a\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u8d70\u52bf\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u6807：\u5efa\u7acb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ea7\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u5468\u671f\u611f\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
3：\u667a\u80fd\u51b3\u7b56\u652f\u6301（18-36\u4e2a\u6708）<\/p>\n
\u4ea7\u51fa：\u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u5185\u90e8\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7248\u3002<\/p>\n
\u884c\u52a8：\u79ef\u7d2f\u81ea\u6709\u6570\u636e，\u5b8c\u5584\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u89c4\u5219，\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u5206\u6790\u5f15\u5165AI\u8f85\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u6807：\u5b9e\u73b0\u5173\u952e\u6218\u7565\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u534a\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n
Phase 4：\u751f\u6001\u5171\u5efa（36\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u4e0a）<\/p>\n
\u4ea7\u51fa：\u884c\u4e1a\u76f8\u4f4d\u77e5\u8bc6\u56fe\u8c31\u96cf\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n
\u884c\u52a8：\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u5728\u8131\u654f\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6362\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u6d1e\u5bdf，\u5171\u5efa\u7ec6\u5206\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5468\u671f\u4e92\u52a8\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u6807：\u4ece\u5185\u90e8\u5de5\u5177\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u884c\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd，\u83b7\u53d6\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n
7. \u5c40\u9650\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u5c55\u671b<\/p>\n
7.1 \u7406\u8bba\u5c40\u9650\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u8fb9\u754c<\/p>\n
\u6846\u67b6\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u7684\u6570\u636e，\u6b64\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u83b7\u53d6\u96be\u4e14\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6：\u7ec8\u6781\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6253\u7834\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5468\u671f\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u53cd\u8eab\u6027：\u5f53\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528，\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7834\u574f：\u5bf9\u4e8e\u98a0\u8986\u5f0f\u521b\u65b0，\u6a21\u578b\u5b58\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u76f2\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n
7.2 \u672a\u6765\u6f14\u8fdb\u65b9\u5411<\/p>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u667a\u80fd\u5316：\u8fd0\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd，\u5e2e\u52a9\u5176\u83b7\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f，\u5224\u65ad\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u751f\u6001\u6784\u5efa：\u63a8\u52a8\u5efa\u7acb\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u76f8\u4f4d\u77e5\u8bc6\u56fe\u8c31\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7406\u8bba\u6df1\u5316：\u5206\u8bb8\u751f\u6001\u6c14\u5019\u5468\u671f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b2c\u516d\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
8. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/p>\n
\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u6218\u7565\u6846\u67b6\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u6218\u7565\u8303\u5f0f\u8dc3\u8fc1：\u7531\u666e\u901a\u9759\u6001\u5230\u53d8\u6362\u52a8\u6001，\u7531\u5355\u4e00\u89c6\u89d2\u5230\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5c06\u4e94\u5927\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u5de5\u5177\u5316，\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5728\u8fdc\u6d0b\u822a\u884c\u7684\u5730\u56fe\u4e0e\u5bfc\u822a\u4eea\u3002<\/p>\n
\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u73b0\u5b9e\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6，\u66f4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4ece\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u3001\u8bca\u65ad\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u51b3\u7b56\u77e9\u9635\u5230\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d，\u80dc\u51fa\u7684\u5c06\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u62e5\u6709\u8d44\u6e90\u6216\u6280\u672f\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7，\u66f4\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u7387\u5148\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u5bf9\u591a\u5468\u671f\u52a8\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u8fdb\u884c\u7cbe\u5bc6\u611f\u77e5\u3001\u667a\u80fd\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0e\u654f\u6377\u54cd\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u524d\u8a00<\/p>\n
\n
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\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u793e\u4f1a，\u6211\u6df1\u77e5\u6211\u7684\u5b66\u5386\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4f1a\u662f\u6211\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5c31\u4e1a\u8005\u76f8\u6bd4\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\u3002\u57fa\u7840\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e，\u6211\u5228\u6790\u81ea\u5df1\u5206\u6790\u6211\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u6211\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0f\u806a\u660e，\u7236\u6bcd\u5bf9\u673a\u68b0\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u9500\u552e\u4ee5\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u601d\u8003\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u5f00\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9，\u53d1\u626c\u51fa\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u521b\u4e1a，\u8fd9\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u6211\u628a\u7f3a\u70b9\u964d\u5230\u6700\u4f4e，\u800c\u6211\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u5145\u5206\u7684\u53d1\u6325\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5948\u4f55\u5bb6\u5883\u8d2b\u5bd2，\u65e0\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u8d77\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u5c31\u601d\u8003\u5982\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u6bdb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u63a5\u89c1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u683c\u62c9\u8096\u548c\u8428\u62c9\u59c6，\u63a5\u89c1\u7f8e\u7c4d\u534e\u4eba\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u674e\u653f\u9053\u3001\u6768\u632f\u5b81\u548c\u5434\u5065\u96c4，\u63a5\u89c1\u65e5\u672c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u5742\u7530\u660c\u4e00，\u63a5\u89c1\u6765\u5317\u4eac\u53c2\u52a0\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u4e9a\u975e\u62c9\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec，\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u63a2\u8ba8\u5fae\u89c2\u7c92\u5b50\u7684\u53ef\u5206\u6027\u3002 \u5728\u5317\u6234\u6cb3\u540c\u51e0\u4f4d\u54f2\u5b66\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u8c08\u8bdd\u65f6，\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u8bf4：\u201c\u5217\u5b81\u8bb2\u8fc7，\u51e1\u4e8b\u90fd\u53ef\u5206\u3002 \u4e3e\u539f\u5b50\u4e3a\u4f8b，\u4e0d\u4f46\u539f\u5b50\u53ef\u5206，\u7535\u5b50\u4e5f\u53ef\u5206\u3002 \u53ef\u662f\u4ece\u524d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u539f\u5b50\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\u3002 \u539f\u5b50\u6838\u5206\u88c2，\u8fd9\u95e8\u79d1\u5b66\u8fd8\u5f88\u5e74\u9752\u3002 \u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765，\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u628a\u539f\u5b50\u6838\u5206\u89e3\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u6df1\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u3002\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba：\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u54f2\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u51fa\u5176\u6307\u5bfc\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u4e86，\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u957f\u65f6\u65e0\u5e8f，\u77ed\u65f6\u6709\u5e8f\u3002\u957f\u65f6\u65e0\u5e8f；\u4e8b\u7269\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u77ed\u65f6\u6709\u5e8f：\u4e8b\u7269\u662f\u7531\u4e0d\u65ad\u91cf\u53d8，\u800c\u5230\u8fbe\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u624d\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u8d28\u53d8\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba，\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u4e00\u5b9a\u6a21\u578b，\u89e3\u91ca\u5e76\u63a8\u65ad\u4e00\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u79d1\u751f，\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u80e1\u8bf4\u516b\u9053，\u8fd8\u662f\u5176\u6709\u9053\u7406？\u6bd5\u7adf\u6309\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u8bf4\u3002\u4e13\u79d1\u751f\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\u5230\u5404\u9879\u4e13\u4e1a\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u3002\u6211\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u95ee\u9898，\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f8b\u5982：\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b？\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4e92\u76f8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5173\u7cfb？\u5982\u4f55\u5224\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u8d77\u5230\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5927\u5c0f？\u5982\u4f55\u91cf\u5316\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20？<\/p>\n
\u6211\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u6240\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6，\u800c\u662f\u7528\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u6240\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6559\u4f60\u5982\u4f55\u6323\u94b1，\u800c\u662f\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60，\u73b0\u5728\u5e94\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u505a？<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4e0d\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u53ea\u662f\u63a8\u65ad\u672a\u6765，\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u4f4e\u5c42\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u903b\u8f91，\u6211\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u627e\u51fa\u5176\u4ee3\u7801，\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ee3\u7801\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u672c\u4eba\u56e0\u4e3a\u81ea\u8eab\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u95ee\u9898，\u65e0\u6cd5\u56de\u6eaf\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\u3002\u5176\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u6a21\u578b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u53ea\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u5927\u4e8e\u7b49\u4e8e\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u9762\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5355\u5468\u671f\u6216\u8005\u9759\u6001\u3002\u800c\u672c\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u52a8\u6001\u4e14\u591a\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u6570\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u4fdd\u5b8c\u5168\u51c6\u786e，\u539f\u56e0\u8fd8\u662f\u5bb6\u5883\u8d2b\u5bd2，\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u5982\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u4fee\u6b63，\u53ef\u5f97\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u6570\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f80\u5f80\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u5e74\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9a8c\u8bc1，\u672c\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u8eab\u5165\u5c40\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u7406\u8bba，\u5728\u9002\u5408\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u673a\u68b0\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u300a\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u6218\u7565\u300b，\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b，\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u5957 \u201c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b，\u5982\u4f55\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u601d\u8003\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u53d1\u8868\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u793e\u4f1a\u5404\u754c，\u80fd\u591f\u7ed9\u4e88\u672c\u4eba\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c06\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u6218\u7565\u7531\u56fe\u7eb8\u5230\u5b9e\u7269\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n
\n
\u9644\u5f55A：\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u77e9\u9635（\u03a9\u77e9\u9635）\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be6\u89e3<\/p>\n
\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u6743\u91cd\u77e9\u9635\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a 5\u00d75 \u7684\u77e9\u9635，\u5176\u4e2d\u5143\u7d20 \u03c9_ij \u2208 [-1, +1] \u5b9a\u91cf\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185，\u5468\u671f i \u5bf9\u5468\u671f j \u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2022\u03c9_ij = +0.8：\u8868\u793a\u5468\u671f i \u7684\u6539\u5584\u4f1a\u5f3a\u52b2\u5730\u5e26\u52a8\u5468\u671f j \u6539\u5584（\u5f3a\u6b63\u53cd\u9988）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2022\u03c9_ij = -0.6：\u8868\u793a\u5468\u671f i \u7684\u6539\u5584\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u5730\u6291\u5236\u5468\u671f j（\u5f3a\u8d1f\u5411\u51b2\u51fb）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2022\u03c9_ij \u2248 0：\u8868\u793a\u4e24\u5468\u671f\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u6bb5\u65e0\u660e\u663e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8ba1\u7b97 \u03a9 \u77e9\u9635\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u4e3b\u6d41\u65b9\u6cd5：\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u4e13\u5bb6\u5fb7\u5c14\u83f2\u6cd5（\u5b9a\u6027\u4e3a\u4e3b，\u5b9e\u64cd\u8d77\u70b9）\u548c \u57fa\u4e8e\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6cd5（\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e3a\u4e3b，\u9700\u8981\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301）\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8ba1\u7b975×5\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u77e9\u9635(\u03a9)\u7684\u6d41\u7a0b<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u3001\u8d77\u59cb\u70b9<\/p>\n
\u2022 \u8ba1\u7b97\u76ee\u6807: 5×5\u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u77e9\u9635(\u03a9)<\/p>\n
\u4e8c\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u2022 \u51b3\u7b56\u70b9: \u9009\u62e9\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u4e09\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e00: \u4e13\u5bb6\u5fb7\u5c14\u83f2\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u00a0 1. \u6b65\u9aa41: \u7ec4\u5efa\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ec4（\u5b8f\u89c2\/\u79d1\u6280\/\u5e02\u573a\/\u653f\u7b56\/\u5730\u7f18）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 2. \u6b65\u9aa42: \u5b9a\u4e49\u5206\u6790\u80cc\u666f（\u884c\u4e1a\/\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\/\u60c5\u5883）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 3. \u6b65\u9aa43: \u591a\u8f6e\u533f\u540d\u72ec\u7acb\u6253\u5206（\u03c9_ij \u2208 -1,+1）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 4. \u6b65\u9aa44: \u53cd\u9988\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c（\u5747\u503c\/\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\/\u5206\u6b67\u70b9）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 5. \u51b3\u7b56\u70b9: \u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6?<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2022 \u5426 \u2192 \u8fd4\u56de\u6b65\u9aa43<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2022 \u662f \u2192 \u8f93\u51fa: \u5b9a\u6027\u5171\u8bc6\u77e9\u9635 \u03a9<\/p>\n
\u56db\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e8c: \u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52(VAR)\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u00a0 1. \u6b65\u9aa41: \u51c6\u5907S_i(t)\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e（\u6708\u5ea6, \u2265120\u671f）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 2. \u6b65\u9aa42: \u6eda\u52a8\u7a97\u53e3VAR\u5efa\u6a21（\u598260\u4e2a\u6708\u7a97\u53e3）<\/p>\n
\u00a0 3. \u6b65\u9aa43: \u8ba1\u7b97\u8109\u51b2\u54cd\u5e94(IRF)\u4e0e\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u68c0\u9a8c<\/p>\n
\u00a0 4. \u6b65\u9aa44: \u91cf\u5316IRF\u5cf0\u503c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u03c9_ij\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c<\/p>\n
\u00a0 5. \u8f93\u51fa: \u52a8\u6001\u5b9a\u91cf\u77e9\u9635 \u03a9(t)<\/p>\n
\u4e94\u3001\u7ed3\u679c\u5e94\u7528<\/p>\n
\u2022 \u7ed3\u679c\u5e94\u7528: \u8bca\u65ad\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f<\/p>\n
\u2022 \u6838\u5fc3\u9a8c\u8bc1: \u03a9\u77e9\u9635\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u5426\u652f\u6301\u57fa\u4e8eS_i\u7684\u8bca\u65ad?<\/p>\n
\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u5b9e\u64cd\u5efa\u8bae：<\/p>\n
| \n \u7279\u6027<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u4e13\u5bb6\u5fb7\u5c14\u83f2\u6cd5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u57fa\u4e8eVAR\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6cd5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| \n \u6838\u5fc3\u4f9d\u636e<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u4e13\u5bb6\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0e\u96c6\u4f53\u5224\u65ad<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5f8b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| \n \u6570\u636e\u9700\u6c42<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u4f4e（\u65e0\u9700\u957f\u5e8f\u5217）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u9ad8（\u9700\u2265120\u671f\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u6570\u636e）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| \n \u65f6\u6548\u6027<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u5f3a（\u53ef\u8bc4\u4f30\u672a\u6765）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u5f31（\u53cd\u6620\u5386\u53f2\u5173\u7cfb，\u5047\u8bbe\u672a\u6765\u5ef6\u7eed）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| \n \u4e3b\u89c2\u6027<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u8f83\u9ad8（\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e13\u5bb6\u6c34\u5e73）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u8f83\u4f4e（\u6a21\u578b\u9a71\u52a8）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| \n \u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u4f4e<\/p>\n<\/td>\n | \n \u9ad8（\u9700\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6）<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u9644\u5f55B：\u6a21\u5f0f-\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u6784\u5efa\u8be6\u89e3<\/p>\n \u6a21\u5f0f-\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u662f\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u5171\u632f\u6218\u7565\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u5176\u8868\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e25\u5bc6\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u6765\u3002\u5e2e\u52a9\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u7ec4\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u8de8\u5468\u671f\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u63d0\u5347\u6269\u5c55\u5171\u632f\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u4f1a（\u6216\u98ce\u9669）\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n \u4ee5\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6574\u8ba1\u7b97\u6d41\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n \u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5：\u5386\u53f2\u6750\u6599\u7684\u51c6\u5907<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa41：<\/p>\n \u6536\u96c6\u5f80\u671f\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e，\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u7684\u957f\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u5e93<\/p>\n \u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4：\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u6536\u96c6\u8f83\u957f\u7684，\u5efa\u8bae20-30\u5e74\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u6216\u5b63\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n \u6570\u636e\u5185\u5bb9：\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e94\u5468\u671f\u8bc4\u5206S_i\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5b50\u6570\u636e\u3002（\u5982\u884c\u4e1a\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f\u3001EPU\u6307\u6570\u3001GPR\u6307\u6570\u7b49）\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa42：<\/p>\n \u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u627e\u51fa\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n \u7ec4\u5efa\u5224\u65ad\u5c0f\u7ec4：\u7531\u8d44\u6df1\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n \u660e\u786e\u4e94\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6807\u51c6：<\/p>\n \u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b \u8ba4\u77e5\u6ce1\u6cab\u53cd\u566c\u578b \u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b \u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u578b \u7efc\u5408\u9707\u8361\u578b<\/p>\n （\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u800c\u66f4\u6539\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f）<\/p>\n \u5148\u5206\u522b\u5224\u65ad\u518d\u5171\u540c\u8ba8\u8bba，\u6700\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u6743\u91cd\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n \u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5：\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u5355\u72ec\u4f18\u5316<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa43：\u4ece\u603b\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e2d，\u628a\u6240\u6709\u4e3a\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9，\u5f62\u6210\u5b50\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9 ，\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u90fd\u6709：<\/p>\n \u8f93\u5165\u7279\u5f81：[S_E(t), S_T(t), S_C(t), S_P(t), S_G(t)]<\/p>\n \u8f93\u51fa\u76ee\u6807：R(t+1) （\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca）<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa44：\u5efa\u7acb\u4f18\u5316\u6a21\u578b，\u5bfb\u627e\u4e00\u7ec4\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n \u5728\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a，\u7528\u8fd9\u7ec4\u6743\u91cd\u5408\u6210\u7684 RSI\u2295(t) \u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u7684 R(t+1) \u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n \u5373\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6c42\u89e3\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u6743\u91cd：W_E, W_T, W_C, W_P, W_G\u3002<\/p>\n \u7ea6\u675f\u6761\u4ef6（\u786e\u4fdd\u6743\u91cd\u7b26\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u903b\u8f91\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49）：<\/p>\n \u6743\u91cd\u548c\u4e3a\u4e00，\u786e\u4fddRSI\u2295\u662f\u52a0\u6743\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n \u975e\u8d1f\u7ea6\u675f：W_i \u2265 0 (i = E, T, C, P, G)\u3002\u6743\u91cd\u4e0d\u5e94\u4e3a\u8d1f\u3002<\/p>\n \u6a21\u5f0f\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6027\u7ea6\u675f：<\/p>\n W_G \u2265 \u03b8 （\u4f8b\u5982 \u03b8 = 0.35）\u3002<\/p>\n \u4f8b\u5982：\u5728\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b，\u5730\u7f18\u5fc5\u987b\u62e5\u6709\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6743\u91cd，\u4f53\u73b0\u5176\u201c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u201d\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n W_P \u2265 W_E \u4e14 W_P \u2265 W_T\u3002<\/p>\n \u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u901a\u5e38\u5f15\u53d1\u653f\u7b56，\u6240\u4ee5\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u3002<\/p>\n \u5176\u4ed6\u903b\u8f91\u7ea6\u675f：<\/p>\n \u4f8b\u5982，\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5165 W_C \u2264 W_P，\u8868\u793a\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d，\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n \u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97ic\u503c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97：<\/p>\n IC = Corr( RSI\u2295(t), R(t+1) )<\/p>\n Corr()：\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002=<\/p>\n R(t+1)：\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9t\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f，\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u201c\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u201d<\/p>\n IC：\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u503c\u3002\u8303\u56f4\u662f -1 \u5230 +1\u3002<\/p>\n +1：\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u3002RSI\u2295(t) \u9ad8，R(t+1) \u4e5f\u4e00\u5b9a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n 0：\u6beb\u65e0\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n -1：\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002RSI\u2295(t) \u9ad8，R(t+1) \u53cd\u800c\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n \u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u516c\u5f0f\u662f：<\/p>\n \u00a0IC = [ \u03a3( (X_i – X\u5e73\u5747) * (Y_i – Y\u5e73\u5747) ) ] \/ [ sqrt( \u03a3(X_i – X\u5e73\u5747)\u00b2 ) * sqrt( \u03a3(Y_i – Y\u5e73\u5747)\u00b2 ) ]<\/p>\n \u8fd9\u91cc，X_i \u5c31\u662f RSI\u2295(t_i)， Y_i \u5c31\u662f R(t_i+1)\u3002<\/p>\n \u6211\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd910\u4e2aX\u503c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c（X\u5e73\u5747），\u548c10\u4e2aY\u503c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c（Y\u5e73\u5747）\u3002<\/p>\n \u7136\u540e\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f，\u5148\u7b97\u5206\u5b50，\u518d\u7b97\u5206\u6bcd，\u6700\u540e\u76f8\u9664，\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5728\u8fd9\u7ec4\u7279\u5b9a\u6743\u91cd\u4e0b\u7684IC\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa45：<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e26\u7ebf\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n \u5e38\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5：<\/p>\n \u7f51\u683c\u641c\u7d22\u6cd5\u3001\u6570\u503c\u4f18\u5316\u7b97\u6cd5（\u5e8f\u5217\u4e8c\u6b21\u89c4\u5212\u6216\u9057\u4f20\u7b97\u6cd5）<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa46：\u6837\u672c\u5185\u4e0e\u6837\u672c\u5916\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/p>\n \u6837\u672c\u5185\u9a8c\u8bc1：<\/p>\n \u5c06\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b65\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u7528\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u96c6，\u8ba1\u7b97ic\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n \u6837\u672c\u5916\u9a8c\u8bc1：<\/p>\n \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1：<\/p>\n \u4f8b\u5982：<\/p>\n \u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u987a\u5e8f\u5212\u5206，\u7528\u524d70%\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u505a\u8bad\u7ec3，\u7528\u540e30%\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u505a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u6216\u8005\u9884\u7559\u72ec\u7acb\u5371\u673a\u671f，\u523b\u610f\u7559\u51fa1-2\u6b21\u672a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u8457\u540d\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\u671f<\/p>\n \u5c06\u8bad\u7ec3\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u6743\u91cd，\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ece\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u4e0a，\u8ba1\u7b97IC\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n \u76ee\u7684：<\/p>\n \u68c0\u9a8c\u6743\u91cd\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b，\u9632\u6b62\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c\u6837\u672c\u5916IC\u4e0e\u6837\u672c\u5185IC\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e0d\u5927\u4e14\u4ecd\u7136\u663e\u8457，\u8bf4\u660e\u6743\u91cd\u7a33\u5065\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n \u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5：\u4e13\u5bb6\u8bc4\u5ba1\u4e0e\u56fa\u5316<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa47：\u4e13\u5bb6\u8bc4\u5ba1\u4e0e\u5fae\u8c03<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0\u00a0 \u5c06\u4f18\u5316\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u6837\u672c\u5185\u5916IC\u8868\u73b0，\u8fde\u540c\u5bf9\u5e94\u5386\u53f2\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u03a9\u77e9\u9635\u5206\u6790\u3001\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u56de\u987e\u7b49\u6750\u6599，\u63d0\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4e13\u5bb6\u5c0f\u7ec4\u5ba1\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0\u00a0 \u5ba1\u8bae\u91cd\u70b9：<\/p>\n \u6743\u91cd\u5206\u914d\u662f\u5426\u7b26\u5408\u8be5\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u76f4\u89c9？<\/p>\n W_G=0.4, W_P=0.25\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u4e3b\u5bfc，\u653f\u7b56\u8ddf\u8fdb\u201d\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5173\u7cfb？<\/p>\n \u4e0e\u540c\u671f\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u03a9\u77e9\u9635\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u4e92\u5370\u8bc1？<\/p>\n \u03a9\u77e9\u9635\u663e\u793a \u03c9_GP \u548c \u03c9_GE \u4e3a\u5f3a\u8d1f\u503c，\u90a3\u4e48\u6743\u91cd\u4e2d W_G \u9ad8\u3001W_E \u4f4e\u5c31\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n \u5bf9\u4e2a\u522b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u201c\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u201d\u7684\u6743\u91cd，\u662f\u6570\u636e\u63ed\u793a\u7684\u9690\u85cf\u89c4\u5f8b，\u8fd8\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u7684\u566a\u97f3？<\/p>\n \u5728\u4e13\u5bb6\u5145\u5206\u8ba8\u8bba\u540e，\u5bf9\u6570\u5b66\u4f18\u5316\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u5e45\u7684\u624b\u52a8\u5fae\u8c03，\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7b26\u5408\u96c6\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u3002（\u8c03\u6574\u5e45\u5ea6\u5e94\u6709\u4e25\u683c\u9650\u5236，\u4ee5\u514d\u504f\u79bb\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c）<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa48：<\/p>\n \u5f97\u51fa\u6743\u91cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n \u7b2c\u56db\u9636\u6bb5：\u5168\u5c40\u6784\u5efa\u4e0e\u8fed\u4ee3\u66f4\u65b0<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa49：\u91cd\u590d\u6d41\u7a0b，\u6784\u5efa\u5b8c\u6574\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u5bf9\u53e6\u5916\u51e0\u79cd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f<\/p>\n \u6b65\u9aa410：\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u53d8，\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u4ee3\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b9a\u671f\u5168\u9762\u91cd\u6821 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u9a71\u52a8\u5c40\u90e8\u66f4\u65b0 \u7248\u672c\u7ba1\u7406<\/p>\n \u9644\u5f55C\u6269\u5c55\u5171\u632f\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6307\u6570（RSI\u2295）\u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f：<\/p>\n RSI\u2295(t) = \u03a3 W_i(t) \u00b7 S_i(t)，\u5176\u4e2d\u6c42\u548c i \u904d\u53ca {E, T, C, P, G} \u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n \u6570\u503c\u8303\u56f4：\u3001<\/p>\n \u56e0\u4e3a S_i \u5927\u81f4\u57280-100，\u4e14 \u03a3W_i = 1\u3002\u6240\u4ee5RSI\u2295(t) \u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u4e5f\u843d\u57280-100\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n \u9644\u5f55D：\u5468\u671f\u5065\u5eb7\u5206<\/p>\n 1. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f (E) \u5065\u5eb7\u5206 `S_E` \u8ba1\u7b97\u53c2\u65701：\u884c\u4e1a\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f（\u540c\u6bd4）<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：(\u672c\u671f\u884c\u4e1a\u603b\u8425\u6536 – \u4e0a\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u884c\u4e1a\u603b\u8425\u6536) \/ \u4e0a\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u884c\u4e1a\u603b\u8425\u6536 * 100%<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u5373\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u503c X_E1\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65702：\u884c\u4e1aPMI<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u76f4\u63a5\u83b7\u53d6\u5b98\u65b9\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\/\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u6570\u503c\u3002\u82e5\u9700\u884c\u4e1a\u7ec6\u5206，\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u8d22\u65b0PMI\u6216\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u67e5\u5408\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u8be5\u6570\u503c\u5373\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u503c X_E2\u3002PMI\u9ad8\u4e8e50\u8868\u793a\u6269\u5f20，\u662f\u5229\u597d\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n \u5185\u90e8\u5408\u6210 S_E：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6807\u51c6\u5316：\u5206\u522b\u5bf9 X_E1 \u548c X_E2 \u8fdb\u884c\u6eda\u52a8Z-score\u6807\u51c6\u5316（\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\u201c\u901a\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6d41\u7a0b\u201d）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u52a0\u6743：\u91c7\u7528\u9884\u8bbe\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6743\u91cd（\u5982：\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f\u6743\u91cd w_E1 = 0.6， PMI\u6743\u91cd w_E2 = 0.4）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：S_E = w_E1 * (X_E1\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206) + w_E2 * (X_E2\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)<\/p>\n 2. \u79d1\u6280\u5468\u671f (T) \u5065\u5eb7\u5206 `S_T` \u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65701：\u884c\u4e1a\u7814\u53d1\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u884c\u4e1a\u5e74\u5ea6\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u603b\u989d \/ \u884c\u4e1a\u5e74\u5ea6\u8425\u6536\u603b\u989d * 100%<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u8be5\u6bd4\u503c X_T1 \u8d8a\u9ad8，\u4ee3\u8868\u6280\u672f\u6295\u5165\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65702：\u9ad8\u4ef7\u503c\u4e13\u5229\u5360\u6bd4<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u8fc7\u53bb3\u5e74\u884c\u4e1a\u53d1\u660e\u6388\u6743\u4e13\u5229\u6570 \/ \u540c\u671f\u884c\u4e1a\u4e13\u5229\u7533\u8bf7\u603b\u6570 * 100%<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u8be5\u6bd4\u503c X_T2 \u8861\u91cf\u521b\u65b0\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n \u5185\u90e8\u5408\u6210 S_T：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6807\u51c6\u5316 X_T1 \u548c X_T2\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u52a0\u6743（\u5982 w_T1 = 0.5, w_T2 = 0.5）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 S_T = w_T1 * (X_T1\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206) + w_T2 * (X_T2\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)<\/p>\n 3. \u8ba4\u77e5\u5468\u671f (C) \u5065\u5eb7\u5206 `S_C` \u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65701：\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u6d4b\u79bb\u6563\u5ea6（\u5012\u6570）<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：<\/p>\n \u83b7\u53d6\u6240\u6709\u8986\u76d6\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u9f99\u5934\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5bf9\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74EPS\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u7684 \u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97 \u79bb\u6563\u5ea6：\u6807\u51c6\u5dee \/ \u9884\u6d4b\u5747\u503c\u3002d. \u53d6 \u5012\u6570：X_C1 = 1 \/ \u79bb\u6563\u5ea6\u3002（<\/p>\n \u5904\u7406：X_C1 \u662f\u5229\u597d\u8f6c\u5316\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65702：\u884c\u4e1a\u4f30\u503c\u5386\u53f2\u5206\u4f4d\u6570（\u53cd\u5411）<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97：\u83b7\u53d6\u884c\u4e1a\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u76c8\u7387（PE）\u6216\u5e02\u51c0\u7387（PB）\u3002<\/p>\n \u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u4f30\u503c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684 \u5206\u4f4d\u6570（\u598280%\u8868\u793a\u6bd4\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a80%\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u8d35）\u3002<\/p>\n \u8fdb\u884c \u53cd\u5411\u8f6c\u6362：X_C2 = 100 – \u5206\u4f4d\u6570*100\u3002<\/p>\n \u5904\u7406：X_C2 \u5df2\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53cd\u5411\u5904\u7406\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n \u5185\u90e8\u5408\u6210 S_C：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6807\u51c6\u5316 X_C1 \u548c X_C2（\u6ce8\u610fX_C2\u5df2\u662f\u53cd\u5411\u503c，\u65e0\u9700\u518d\u53cd\u5411）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u52a0\u6743（\u5982 w_C1 = 0.6, w_C2 = 0.4）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 S_C = w_C1 * (X_C1\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206) + w_C2 * (X_C2\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)<\/p>\n 4. \u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f (P) \u5065\u5eb7\u5206 `S_P` \u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65701：\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6307\u6570 (EPU)<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u76f4\u63a5\u83b7\u53d6\u6708\u5ea6EPU\u6307\u6570\u503c X_P1_raw\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：EPU\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u589e\u52a0，\u662f \u4e0d\u5229\u6307\u6807\u3002\u9700\u5728\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u5411：X_P1 = 100 – (X_P1_raw\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65702：\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6587\u4ef6\u53d1\u5e03\u5bc6\u5ea6（\u53ef\u9009）<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u7edf\u8ba1\u671f\u5185（\u5982\u5b63\u5ea6）\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ea7\u90e8\u59d4\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u9488\u5bf9\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6587\u4ef6\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u6b64\u6307\u6807 X_P2 \u4e3a\u5229\u597d\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n \u5185\u90e8\u5408\u6210 S_P：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6807\u51c6\u5316 X_P1_raw \u548c X_P2\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5bf9 X_P1_raw\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206 \u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u5411，\u5f97\u5230 X_P1\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u52a0\u6743（\u5982 w_P1 = 0.7, w_P2 = 0.3）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 S_P = w_P1 * X_P1 + w_P2 * (X_P2\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)<\/p>\n 5. \u5730\u7f18\u5468\u671f (G) \u5065\u5eb7\u5206 `S_G` \u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65701：\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6570 (GPR)<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：\u76f4\u63a5\u83b7\u53d6\u6708\u5ea6GPR\u6307\u6570\u503c X_G1_raw\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u4e0eEPU\u7c7b\u4f3c，\u662f \u4e0d\u5229\u6307\u6807\u3002\u9700\u53cd\u5411：X_G1 = 100 – (X_G1_raw\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206)\u3002<\/p>\n \u5b50\u53c2\u65702：\u5173\u952e\u8d44\u6e90\u8fdb\u53e3\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6（\u53cd\u5411）<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97：a. \u786e\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\u4f9d\u8d56\u76841-3\u79cd\u5173\u952e\u8fdb\u53e3\u8d44\u6e90（\u5982\u82af\u7247\u3001\u9502\u77ff）\u3002b. \u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u98ce\u9669\u8f83\u9ad8\u5730\u533a（\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u4e3b\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u6216\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u8bc4\u7ea7）\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u5360\u6bd4 X_G2_raw\u3002c. \u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u5411：X_G2 = 100 – X_G2_raw*100\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5904\u7406：\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u8d8a\u5927，\u53cd\u5411\u540e\u5206\u6570\u8d8a\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n \u5185\u90e8\u5408\u6210 S_G：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6807\u51c6\u5316 X_G1_raw \u548c X_G2（\u6ce8\u610fX_G2\u5df2\u662f\u53cd\u5411\u503c）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5bf9 X_G1_raw\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206 \u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u5411，\u5f97\u5230 X_G1\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u52a0\u6743（\u5982 w_G1 = 0.7, w_G2 = 0.3）\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 S_G = w_G1 * X_G1 + w_G2 * X_G2<\/p>\n \u4e09\u3001 \u901a\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6d41\u7a0b（\u6eda\u52a8Z-score\u6cd5）<\/p>\n \u8fd9\u662f\u5c06\u4e0d\u540c\u91cf\u7eb2\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u6307\u6807\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u53ef\u6bd4\u5206\u6570\u7684 \u6700\u5173\u952e\u6b65\u9aa4\u3002<\/p>\n \u516c\u5f0f：\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206 = 50 + 10 \u00d7 ( (X_current – \u03bc_rolling) \/ \u03c3_rolling ) \u64cd\u4f5c\u6b65\u9aa4：<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u786e\u5b9a\u6eda\u52a8\u7a97\u53e3：\u4f8b\u5982，\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb 60\u4e2a\u6708（5\u5e74） \u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7a97\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97\u6eda\u52a8\u5747\u503c\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee：\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u70b9 t，\u53d6\u5176\u524d60\u671f\u6570\u636e（t-60 \u5230 t-1），\u8ba1\u7b97\u5747\u503c \u03bc_rolling \u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee \u03c3_rolling\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8ba1\u7b97Z-score：Z_current = (X_current – \u03bc_rolling) \/ \u03c3_rolling\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u7ebf\u6027\u8f6c\u6362：\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5206 = 50 + 10 * Z_current\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u610f\u4e49：\u6700\u7ec8\u5206\u6570\u4ee550\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3，68%\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f1a\u843d\u572840-60\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4（\u6b63\u8d1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee），\u76f4\u89c2\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u503c\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u8fb9\u754c\u5904\u7406：\u786e\u4fdd\u5206\u6570\u843d\u57280-100\u4e4b\u95f4，\u53ef\u8fdb\u884c\u9650\u5e45\u5904\u7406（\u5982 <0 \u53d60， >100 \u53d6100）\u3002<\/p>\n \u9644\u5f55E：\u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be6\u89e3<\/p>\n \u52a8\u6001\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u56fe\u64ce\u662f\u672c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u6d41\u7a0b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6001\u7684，\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u53d8\u5316\u968f\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u53d1\u5c55，\u662f\u5c06\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u6001（S_i）\u3001\u5468\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb（\u03a9\u77e9\u9635）\u4ee5\u53ca\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c（\u6a21\u5f0f-\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u7167\u8868）\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77，\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u6267\u884c\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n \n \u4e00．\u6570\u636e\u7684\u51c6\u5907<\/p>\n \u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u63a8\u65ad\u65f6，\u9996\u5148\u8981\u51c6\u5907\u4e09\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5468\u671f\u5065\u5eb7\u5206S(t)：<\/p>\n \u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u5065\u5eb7\u5206：S_E(t), S_T(t), S_C(t), S_P(t), S_G(t)\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u5f97\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u901a\u8fc7\u6eda\u52a8Z-score\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5904\u7406，\u5176\u503c\u4f1a\u57280-100\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u5468\u671f\u4ea4\u4e92\u6743\u91cd\u77e9\u9635 \u03a9(t)：<\/p>\n \u901a\u8fc7\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u5f97\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00，\u63a8\u6f14\u51fa\u8be5\u65f6\u95f4\u65ad\u5f975\u00d75\u4ea4\u4e92\u77e9\u9635\u3002\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u662f\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u65f6\u6548\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n \u2022\u00a0 \u6a21\u5f0f-\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u7167\u8868：<\/p>\n \u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u3002\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u90a3\u79cd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f（\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u6ce1\u6cab\u53cd\u566c\u578b\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u578b\u3001\u7efc\u5408\u9707\u8361\u578b），\u7136\u540e\u627e\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u6700\u4f18\u6743\u91cd (W_E, W_T, W_C, W_P, W_G)\u3002<\/p>\n \n \u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65：\u5224\u65ad\u77e9\u9635\u5224\u65ad\u5f97\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5171\u632f\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e <\/p>\n \u4f8b\u5982：<\/p>\n \u89c4\u5219\u4e00：\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b？<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6A（\u7edd\u5bf9\u9608\u503c）：S_G(t) < 35\u3002\u5730\u7f18\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u4e8e \u201c\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u5065\u5eb7\u201d \u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6B（\u76f8\u5bf9\u6700\u5dee）：S_G(t) == min( S_E(t), S_T(t), S_C(t), S_P(t), S_G(t) )\u3002\u5730\u7f18\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5468\u671f\u4e2d \u6700\u4f4e \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c \u6761\u4ef6A\u4e0e\u6761\u4ef6B\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3，\u5219\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u5f53\u524d\u4e3a \u201c\u5730\u7f18\u5371\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u201d，\u4e0d\u7528\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5426\u5219\u7ee7\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n \u89c4\u5219\u4e8c：\u8ba4\u77e5\u6ce1\u6cab\u53cd\u566c\u578b<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6A（\u7edd\u5bf9\u9608\u503c – \u6ce1\u6cab\u8868\u5f81）：S_C(t) > 75\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u4e8e \u201c\u6781\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\u201d \u533a\u95f4，\u8fd9\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6B（\u76f8\u5bf9\u6700\u9ad8 – \u4e3b\u5bfc\u6027\u786e\u8ba4）：S_C(t) == max( S_E(t), S_T(t), S_C(t), S_P(t), S_G(t) )\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5468\u671f\u4e2d \u6700\u9ad8 \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a，\u8868\u660e\u8ba4\u77e5\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6C（\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u8584\u5f31 – \u53cd\u566c\u98ce\u9669）：S_E(t) < 60\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u5747\u503c，\u8868\u660e\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u65e0\u6cd5\u652f\u6491\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u6269\u5f20，\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u548c\u53cd\u566c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c \u6761\u4ef6A\u3001B\u3001C\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3，\u5219\u5224\u65ad\u4e3a \u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u6ce1\u6cab\u53cd\u566c\u578b\u201d，\u5426\u5219\u7ee7\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n \u89c4\u5219\u4e09：\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b<\/p>\n \n \u6761\u4ef6A（\u7edd\u5bf9\u9608\u503c）：S_P(t) > 75\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u4e8e \u201c\u975e\u5e38\u5065\u5eb7\u201d \u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6B（\u76f8\u5bf9\u6700\u597d）：S_P(t) == max( S_E(t), S_T(t), S_C(t), S_P(t), S_G(t) )\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5468\u671f\u4e2d \u6700\u9ad8 \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c\u6761\u4ef6A\u4e0e\u6761\u4ef6B\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3，\u5219\u5224\u65ad\u4e3a \u201c\u653f\u7b56\u5f3a\u529b\u7275\u5f15\u578b\u201d\u3002\u5426\u5219，\u7ee7\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n \u89c4\u5219\u56db：\u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u578b？<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6A（\u79d1\u6280\u9608\u503c）：S_T(t) > 70\u3002\u79d1\u6280\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u4e8e \u201c\u5065\u5eb7\u201d \u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6B（\u7ecf\u6d4e\u652f\u6491）：S_E(t) > 65\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u5206\u9700\u63d0\u4f9b\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5316\u571f\u58e4\u3002<\/p>\n \u6761\u4ef6C（\u76f8\u5bf9\u5173\u7cfb）：S_T(t) > S_P(t) \u4e14 S_T(t) > S_G(t)\u3002\u79d1\u6280\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u5ea6\u9700\u660e\u786e\u4f18\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5730\u7f18\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c \u6761\u4ef6A\u3001B\u3001C\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3，\u5219\u5224\u4e3a \u201c\u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u578b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n \u89c4\u5219\u4e94：\u9ed8\u8ba4\u2014\u2014\u7efc\u5408\u9707\u8361\u578b<\/p>\n \u5982\u679c\u5f53\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u89c4\u5219\u5747\u672a\u6ee1\u8db3\u65f6\u3002\u5219\u5224\u5b9a\u4e3a\u7efc\u5408\u9707\u8361\u578b，\u5404\u5468\u671f\u529b\u91cf\u76f8\u4e92\u5236\u8861\u6216\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n \u6700\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u7c7b\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n \u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65：\u52a8\u6001\u6743\u91cd\u5408\u6210\u4e0e\u8c03\u6574<\/p>\n \u6839\u636e\u8bca\u65ad\u51fa\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f，\u8fdb\u5165\u6743\u91cd\u5408\u6210\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n \u9636\u6bb5A：<\/p>\n \u5728\u6a21\u5f0f-\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u7167\u8868\u4e2d，\u67e5\u627e\u8868\u683c\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd<\/p>\n \u8868\u683c\u793a\u4f8b：<\/p>\n \n
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