{"id":67719,"date":"2026-01-29T03:41:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T19:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/67719.html"},"modified":"2026-01-29T03:41:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T19:41:44","slug":"%e3%80%902024%e7%be%8e%e8%b5%9bc%e9%a2%98%e3%80%91o%e5%a5%96%e8%ae%ba%e6%96%87%e7%bf%bb%e8%af%91%ef%bc%88%e9%99%84%e5%9b%be%e7%89%87%ef%bc%892410482","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/67719.html","title":{"rendered":"\u30102024\u7f8e\u8d5bC\u9898\u3011O\u5956\u8bba\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff08\u9644\u56fe\u7247\uff092410482"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"main-toc\">\u76ee\u5f55<\/p>\n<p id=\"%E6%91%98%E8%A6%81-toc\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">\u6458\u8981<\/p>\n<p id=\"1.%20%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80-toc\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">1. \u5f15\u8a00<\/p>\n<p id=\"1.1%20%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF-toc\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">1.1 \u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f<\/p>\n<p id=\"1.2%20%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E9%87%8D%E8%BF%B0-toc\" 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4&#xff0c;\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u901a\u7528\u6027&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u548c\u4e00\u573a\u5973\u5b50\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u884c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u5728\u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5747\u65b9\u8bef\u5dee&#xff08;MSE&#xff09;\u4f4e\u81f3 0.051\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4e24\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u4e4b\u5904&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u523b\u753b\u80fd\u529b\u5c06\u662f\u672a\u6765\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u63a2\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\u6837\u672c\u5bf9\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd&#xff0c;\u5e76\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e0e\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u6700\u540e&#xff0c;\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u672b\u5c3e\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u7ed9\u6559\u7ec3\u7684\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55&#xff0c;\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u8def\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934&#xff1b;\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u94fe&#xff1b;\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c&#xff1b;\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b&#xff1b;\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7b97\u6cd5<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"1.%20%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80\">1. \u5f15\u8a00<\/h3>\n<h4 id=\"1.1%20%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF\">1.1 \u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f<\/h4>\n<p>\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u9886\u57df\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5f53\u4e0b&#xff0c;\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u6781\u5927\u5730\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u8868\u73b0\u5206\u6790\u7684\u53d1\u5c55&#xff0c;\u4f46\u73b0\u6709\u5206\u6790\u591a\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u5f97\u5206\u7b49\u7ed3\u679c\u6307\u6807&#xff0c;\u5f80\u5f80\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5bf9\u9009\u624b\u6bd4\u8d5b\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e3a\u66f4\u7cbe\u51c6\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5f97\u5206\u8d8b\u52bf\u5e76\u5236\u5b9a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6218\u672f\u7b56\u7565&#xff0c;\u7814\u7a76\u9009\u624b\u7684 \u201c\u52bf\u5934\u201d \u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u52bf\u5934\u662f\u9009\u624b\u901a\u8fc7\u8fde\u80dc\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u4f18\u52bf&#xff0c;\u5b83\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u53d1\u6325\u3002\u5728\u7f51\u7403\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4f53\u80b2\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u52bf\u5934\u662f\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e&#xff0c;\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u9009\u624b\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3001\u8fdb\u653b\u79ef\u6781\u6027\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"1.2%20%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E9%87%8D%E8%BF%B0\">1.2 \u95ee\u9898\u91cd\u8ff0<\/h4>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u9898\u76ee\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u7ea6\u675f\u6761\u4ef6&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u95ee\u9898&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5229\u7528 2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7f51\u7403\u9526\u6807\u8d5b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u6bd4\u8d5b\u6570\u636e\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u5206\u6790\u6bd4\u8d5b\u52a8\u6001&#xff0c;\u8bc6\u522b\u4efb\u610f\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u9886\u5148\u9009\u624b\u5e76\u91cf\u5316\u5176\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u52bf&#xff1b;\u540c\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u56fe\u8868\u5448\u73b0\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u7a0b&#xff0c;\u5e76\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u9009\u5b9a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027&#xff0c;\u63a2\u7a76\u9009\u624b\u7684\u8fde\u80dc\u8868\u73b0\u6216\u5c40\u52bf\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u968f\u673a\u73b0\u8c61\u8fd8\u662f\u53d7\u52bf\u5934\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8d5b\u6570\u636e\u6784\u5efa\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u8bc6\u522b\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u8d5b\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u56e0\u7d20&#xff0c;\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u8fc7\u5f80\u52bf\u5934\u6ce2\u52a8\u60c5\u51b5&#xff0c;\u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u4e0e\u65b0\u5bf9\u624b\u4ea4\u950b\u7684\u9009\u624b\u63d0\u4f9b\u7b56\u7565\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0&#xff0c;\u6307\u51fa\u9700\u8981\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u5730\u65b9&#xff0c;\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u9002\u7528\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4ee5\u7b80\u6d01\u7684\u4e24\u9875\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u603b\u7ed3\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c&#xff0c;\u4e3a\u6559\u7ec3\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u52bf\u5934\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e94\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u8d5b\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 id=\"1.3%20%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C\">1.3 \u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c<\/h4>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"670\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194138-697a6672f264b.png\" width=\"1280\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u56f4\u7ed5\u56db\u5927\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\u5c55\u5f00&#xff0c;\u5177\u4f53\u6846\u67b6\u5982\u4e0b&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4efb\u52a1 1&#xff1a;\u901a\u8fc7\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u80dc\u7387&#xff0c;\u7ed3\u5408\u8fde\u80dc\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u5c40\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5b9a\u4e49\u52bf\u5934&#xff0c;\u4ece\u80dc\u7387\u548c\u52bf\u5934\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u8bc4\u4f30\u9009\u624b\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4efb\u52a1 2&#xff1a;\u91c7\u7528\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u9a8c\u8bc1\u52bf\u5934\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027&#xff0c;\u53cd\u9a73 \u201c\u5c40\u52bf\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u968f\u673a\u73b0\u8c61\u201d \u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4efb\u52a1 3&#xff1a;\u5229\u7528\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7b97\u6cd5\u6784\u5efa\u52bf\u5934\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u5206\u6790\u5f71\u54cd\u52bf\u5934\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20&#xff0c;\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u52bf\u5934\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9009\u624b\u7ed9\u51fa\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4efb\u52a1 4&#xff1a;\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u548c\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u884c\u62d3\u5c55\u6d4b\u8bd5&#xff0c;\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u901a\u7528\u6027\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u6539\u8fdb\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 id=\"1.4%20%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90\">1.4 \u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90<\/h4>\n<table>\n<tr>\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7c7b\u578b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u7f51\u7ad9<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u6bd4\u8d5b<\/td>\n<td>\u9898\u76ee\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684 Wimbledon_featured_matches.csv<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f51\u7403\u516c\u5f00\u8d5b\u5973\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b<\/td>\n<td>\u5b98\u65b9\u8d5b\u4e8b\u6570\u636e\u5e93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020 \u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u804c\u4e1a\u5927\u8054\u76df&#xff08;WTT&#xff09;\u6fb3\u95e8\u7ad9\u5973\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u534a\u51b3\u8d5b<\/td>\n<td>\u5b98\u65b9\u8d5b\u4e8b\u6570\u636e\u5e93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3 id=\"2.%20%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE%E4%B8%8E%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%81\">2. \u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u8bba\u8bc1<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e3a\u7b80\u5316\u5efa\u6a21\u8fc7\u7a0b&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u8bba\u8bc1&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5047\u8bbe 1&#xff1a;\u8fd1\u671f\u8868\u73b0\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u8868\u73b0\u8bba\u8bc1&#xff1a;\u82e5\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272&#xff0c;\u5219\u5176\u5728\u540e\u7eed\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5047\u8bbe 2&#xff1a;\u8eab\u4f53\u72b6\u6001\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u8bba\u8bc1&#xff1a;\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4f53\u80fd\u72b6\u6001\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a&#xff0c;\u56e0\u6b64\u4f53\u80fd\u4e0a\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6216\u52a3\u52bf\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u540e\u7eed\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5047\u8bbe 3&#xff1a;\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6027\u8bba\u8bc1&#xff1a;\u4e0b\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001&#xff0c;\u4e0e\u8fc7\u5f80\u72b6\u6001\u65e0\u5173&#xff0c;\u7b26\u5408\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u5c40\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 id=\"3.%20%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E\">3. \u7b26\u53f7\u8bf4\u660e<\/h3>\n<table>\n<tr>\u7b26\u53f7\u8bf4\u660e<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>pAB\u200b<\/td>\n<td>A \u4e0e B \u6bd4\u8d5b\u65f6&#xff0c;A \u7684\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>qAB\u200b<\/td>\n<td>A \u4e0e B \u6bd4\u8d5b\u65f6&#xff0c;A \u7684\u63a5\u53d1\u5f97\u5206\u7387<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>\u5c40\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027&#xff08;Leberage&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M<\/td>\n<td>\u52bf\u5934\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u03c9<\/td>\n<td>\u52bf\u5934\u8861\u91cf\u7cfb\u6570\u77e9\u9635<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u03b2<\/td>\n<td>\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u7cfb\u6570<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>W<\/td>\n<td>\u80dc\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u03a3t\u200b<\/td>\n<td>\u57fa\u4e8e t-1 \u65f6\u523b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684Mt\u200b\u6761\u4ef6\u65b9\u5dee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3 id=\"4.%20%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%201%EF%BC%9A%E6%AF%94%E8%B5%9B%E8%BF%9B%E7%A8%8B%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E9%80%89%E6%89%8B%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0\">4. \u4efb\u52a1 1&#xff1a;\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u9009\u624b\u8868\u73b0\u8bc4\u4f30<\/h3>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9009\u624b\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u8868\u73b0&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7ef4\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u8861\u91cf \u2014\u2014 \u80dc\u7387\u548c\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u80dc\u7387\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u7b49\u5e72\u6270&#xff0c;\u4e25\u683c\u6839\u636e\u53cc\u65b9\u5b9e\u529b\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u89d2\u5ea6\u53cd\u6620\u5c40\u52bf\u4f18\u52a3&#xff1b;\u800c\u52bf\u5934\u5219\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u9009\u624b\u5bf9\u573a\u4e0a\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u638c\u63a7\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"365\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194139-697a66734cf94.png\" width=\"465\" \/><\/p>\n<h4 id=\"4.1%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%9A%E9%A9%AC%E5%B0%94%E5%8F%AF%E5%A4%AB%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E8%83%9C%E7%8E%87\" style=\"background-color:transparent\">4.1 \u6a21\u578b\u4e00&#xff1a;\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u80dc\u7387<\/h4>\n<h5 id=\"4.1.1%20%E5%8F%91%E7%90%83%E5%BE%97%E5%88%86%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E\">4.1.1 \u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u673a\u5236\u8bf4\u660e<\/h5>\n<p>\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u53d1\u7403\u65b9\u4e0e\u63a5\u53d1\u65b9\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u663e\u8457&#xff0c;\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u8861\u91cf\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7b26\u53f7pAB\u200b\u3001qAB\u200b\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a A \u4e0e B \u6bd4\u8d5b\u65f6 A \u7684\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u548c\u63a5\u53d1\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728 A \u4e0e B \u7684\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d&#xff0c;A \u7684\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387pAB\u200b\u4e0e A \u7684\u53d1\u7403\u6c34\u5e73\u548c B \u7684\u63a5\u53d1\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u5173&#xff0c;\u53ef\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a A \u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u5e73\u5747\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387pA\u200b\u4e0e B \u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u5e73\u5747\u63a5\u53d1\u5f97\u5206\u7387qB\u200b\u7684\u5747\u503c&#xff0c;\u5373&#xff1a;pAB\u200b&#061;2pA\u200b&#043;qB\u200b\u200b&#043;e(1)\u5176\u4e2d&#xff0c;e\u4e3a\u4fee\u6b63\u9879&#xff0c;\u6839\u636e\u53cc\u65b9\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u540c\u7406&#xff0c;A \u7684\u63a5\u53d1\u5f97\u5206\u7387qAB\u200b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a&#xff1a;qAB\u200b&#061;2qA\u200b&#043;pB\u200b\u200b&#043;e(2)<\/p>\n<h5 id=\"4.1.2%20%E9%A9%AC%E5%B0%94%E5%8F%AF%E5%A4%AB%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B%E4%B8%8E%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C\">4.1.2 \u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c<\/h5>\n<p>\u4e3a\u8ba1\u7b97\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5f15\u5165\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7b49\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001\u800c\u975e\u8fc7\u5f80\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ec5\u9700\u8003\u8651\u5f53\u524d\u6bd4\u5206&#xff0c;\u6392\u9664\u5fc3\u7406\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd&#xff0c;\u56e0\u6b64\u9002\u5408\u91c7\u7528\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u94fe\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u901a\u8fc7\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8f6c\u6362\u5173\u7cfb\u5b9e\u73b0\u6982\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u4f8b\u5982&#xff0c;\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5b9a\u6bd4\u5206\u8ba1\u7b97\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387&#xff0c;\u5177\u4f53\u6d41\u7a0b\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"510\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194139-697a667367c37.png\" width=\"835\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 3&#xff1a;\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u6d41\u7a0b\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe A\u3001B \u5728\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u5f97\u5206\u4e3a(a,b)&#xff0c;\u5176\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u5982\u4e0b\u8868\u6240\u793a&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"245\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194139-697a66739e119.png\" width=\"515\" \/><\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>012345<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>(0,0)<\/td>\n<td>(1,0)<\/td>\n<td>(2,0)<\/td>\n<td>(3,0)<\/td>\n<td>(4,0)<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>(0,1)<\/td>\n<td>(1,1)<\/td>\n<td>(2,1)<\/td>\n<td>(3,1)<\/td>\n<td>(4,1)<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>(0,2)<\/td>\n<td>(1,2)<\/td>\n<td>(2,2)<\/td>\n<td>(3,2)<\/td>\n<td>(4,2)<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>(0,3)<\/td>\n<td>(1,3)<\/td>\n<td>(2,3)<\/td>\n<td>(3,3)<\/td>\n<td>(4,3)<\/td>\n<td>(5,3)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>(0,4)<\/td>\n<td>(1,4)<\/td>\n<td>(2,4)<\/td>\n<td>(3,4)<\/td>\n<td>(4,4)<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<td>(3,5)<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<td>\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u6ce8&#xff1a;\u8868\u4e2d 1\u30012\u30013 \u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u5b9e\u9645\u5f97\u5206 15\u300130\u300140&#xff1b;(4,3)\u3001(3,4) \u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u53cc\u65b9\u5360\u5148&#xff08;AD&#xff09;&#xff1b;(4,4)\u3001(5,3) \u7b49\u7279\u6b8a\u5f97\u5206\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u5e73\u5206\u548c\u5360\u5148\u540e\u518d\u5f97\u4e00\u5206\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u7279\u522b\u5730&#xff0c;(4,3)\u3001(3,4) \u540e\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u4e0e (3,2)\u3001(2,3) \u4e00\u81f4&#xff1b;(3,3)\u3001(4,4) \u540e\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u4e0e (2,2) \u4e00\u81f4&#xff1b;(4,3) \u518d\u5f97\u4e00\u5206\u81f3 (5,3) \u83b7\u80dc\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e (3,2) \u518d\u5f97\u4e00\u5206\u81f3 (4,2) \u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u56e0\u6b64&#xff0c;\u4e0a\u8ff0 6 \u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u7eb3\u5165\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u6d41\u7a0b\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63cf\u8ff0&#xff0c;\u6839\u636e\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f&#xff0c;\u53ef\u5217\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f&#xff1a;P(a,b)&#061;p\u00d7P(a&#043;1,b)&#043;(1\u2212p)\u00d7P(a,b&#043;1)(3)\u5176\u4e2d&#xff0c;P(a,b)\u8868\u793a\u5f97\u5206\u4e3a(a,b)\u65f6\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387&#xff0c;p\u8868\u793a\u8d62\u5f97\u4e00\u5206\u7684\u6982\u7387&#xff08;\u968f\u53d1\u7403\u65b9\u53d8\u5316&#xff09;\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u9006\u5411\u9012\u63a8&#xff0c;\u53ef\u6c42\u5f97\u4efb\u610f\u6bd4\u5206\u4e0b\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u7406&#xff0c;\u5229\u7528\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u4efb\u610f\u6bd4\u5206\u4e0b\u8d62\u5f97\u6574\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u6982\u7387&#xff0c;\u8be5\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u7f51\u7403\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u4f18\u52a3\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b\u7684\u7ed9\u5b9a\u6570\u636e&#xff0c;\u4ee5\u53ca\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u30fb\u963f\u5c14\u5361\u62c9\u65af\u548c\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u5e73\u5747\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u548c\u63a5\u53d1\u5f97\u5206\u7387\u6570\u636e&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e24\u4f4d\u9009\u624b\u5728\u573a\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e00\u523b\u7684\u80dc\u7387&#xff0c;\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194139-697a6673b6dbb.png\" width=\"1700\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 4&#xff1a;2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b\u80dc\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa&#xff0c;\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5c40\u52bf\u8dcc\u5b95\u8d77\u4f0f\u3002\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u5728\u7b2c 1-21 \u5c40\u5360\u636e\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4f18\u52bf&#xff0c;\u4f46 21 \u5c40\u540e\u5c40\u52bf\u9006\u8f6c&#xff0c;\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u843d\u540e\u7684\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u30fb&#061;\u963f\u5c14\u5361\u62c9\u65af\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u4e3b\u52a8\u6743\u3002\u7136\u800c&#xff0c;\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u7684\u987d\u5f3a\u8ffd\u8d76&#xff0c;\u53cc\u65b9\u5728\u7b2c 38 \u5c40\u51e0\u4e4e\u56de\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u8d77\u8dd1\u7ebf&#xff0c;\u6700\u7ec8\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u30fb\u963f\u5c14\u5361\u62c9\u65af\u518d\u6b21\u638c\u63a7\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5e76\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e00\u81f4&#xff0c;\u53ef\u89c1\u80dc\u7387\u56fe\u80fd\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53cd\u6620\u573a\u4e0a\u5c40\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"4.2%20%E5%8A%BF%E5%A4%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2\">4.2 \u52bf\u5934\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u63a2\u7d22<\/h4>\n<h5 id=\"4.2.1%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%8A%BF%E5%A4%B4%EF%BC%9F\">4.2.1 \u5982\u4f55\u91cf\u5316\u52bf\u5934&#xff1f;<\/h5>\n<p>\u8bcd\u5178\u4e2d\u5bf9\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f 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100%\u3002\u518d\u8003\u8651\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u573a\u666f&#xff1a;\u6bd4\u8d5b\u521a\u521a\u5f00\u59cb&#xff0c;\u53cc\u65b9\u5c55\u5f00\u7b2c\u4e00\u76d8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c40&#xff0c;\u82e5 A \u83b7\u80dc&#xff0c;\u5176\u6bd4\u8d5b\u80dc\u7387\u4ece 0.5 \u63d0\u5347\u81f3 0.6&#xff1b;\u82e5 A \u5931\u5229&#xff0c;\u5176\u6bd4\u8d5b\u80dc\u7387\u4ec5\u964d\u81f3 0.4&#xff0c;\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u673a\u4f1a\u9006\u8f6c\u6bd4\u8d5b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c40\u5bf9\u80dc\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ec5\u4e3a0.6\u22120.4&#061;0.2\u3002\u7531\u6b64&#xff0c;\u5c40\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027&#xff08;Leberage&#xff09;\u53ef\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a 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0\u3001\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u4e3a\u03c3\u7684\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03&#xff0c;\u5373\u03b5\u223cN(0,\u03c32)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e94\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u540e&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u5b9a\u03c9&#061;[0.5,0.2,0.1,\u22120.1,0.1]\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5 2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b\u4e3a\u4f8b&#xff0c;\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u6574\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u52bf\u5934\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194140-697a6674474c3.png\" width=\"1308\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 5&#xff1a;2023 \u5e74\u6e29\u5e03\u5c14\u767b\u7537\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u52bf\u5934\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe&#xff0c;\u6b64\u5904\u7701\u7565\u56fe\u8868&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa&#xff0c;\u6574\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0a\u52bf\u5934\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e24\u6b21\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f&#xff0c;\u5176\u6ce2\u52a8\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u8ba4\u77e5\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\u3002\u4ece\u7ec6\u8282\u4e0a\u770b&#xff0c;\u52bf\u5934\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u6bcf\u4e00\u5206\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"5.%20%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%202%EF%BC%9A%E5%8A%BF%E5%A4%B4%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%8F%E6%9C%BA%E6%80%A7%E6%A3%80%E9%AA%8C\">5. \u4efb\u52a1 2&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<\/h3>\n<h4 id=\"5.1%20%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E4%B8%8E%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E6%A6%82%E8%BF%B0\">5.1 \u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u6982\u8ff0<\/h4>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u524d\u6587\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u548c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u5047\u8bbe\u662f \u201c\u52bf\u5934\u201d \u5bf9\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd&#xff0c;\u5373\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u52bf\u5934\u76f8\u5173&#xff0c;\u800c\u975e\u5982\u6559\u7ec3\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u662f\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4e3a\u8bc1\u5b9e\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5&#xff0c;\u9610\u660e\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u52bf\u5934\u4e0e\u5f97\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194140-697a66748f8a2.png\" width=\"1140\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 6&#xff1a;\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u6d41\u7a0b\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u53cd\u9a73\u6559\u7ec3\u7684\u89c2\u70b9&#xff0c;\u5e76\u9075\u5faa\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\u4fdd\u62a4\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u539f\u5219&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5047\u8bbe&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u539f\u5047\u8bbe&#xff08;H0\u200b&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934&#xff08;M&#xff09;\u4e0e\u5f97\u5206\u6982\u7387&#xff08;P&#xff09;\u65e0\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173\u6027&#xff1b;<\/li>\n<li>\u5907\u62e9\u5047\u8bbe&#xff08;H1\u200b&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934&#xff08;M&#xff09;\u4e0e\u5f97\u5206\u6982\u7387&#xff08;P&#xff09;\u6709\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u968f\u540e&#xff0c;\u4e3a\u63a2\u7a76\u52bf\u5934\u4e0e\u8d62\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173\u6027&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u51fd\u6570\u5f62\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b&#xff1a;ln1\u2212P(Y&#061;1)P(Y&#061;1)\u200b&#061;\u03b20\u200b&#043;\u03b21\u200bM&#043;\u2211i&#061;25\u200b\u03b2i\u200bXi\u200b\u5176\u4e2d&#xff0c;P\u8868\u793a\u5f97\u5206\u6982\u7387&#xff0c;1\u2212P\u8868\u793a\u5931\u5206\u6982\u7387&#xff08;\u4e0e\u524d\u6587\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u4e0d\u540c&#xff0c;\u6b64\u5904\u9488\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e00\u5206\u800c\u975e\u67d0\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b&#xff09;&#xff1b;\u03b20\u200b\u4e3a\u622a\u8ddd\u9879&#xff08;\u5e38\u6570&#xff09;&#xff1b;\u03b21\u200b\u4e3a\u52bf\u5934\u5bf9\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7cfb\u6570&#xff1b;M\u8868\u793a\u52bf\u5934&#xff1b;Xi\u200b(i&#061;2,3,4,5)\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf&#xff0c;\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u52bf\u5934\u65e0\u5173\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u5f97\u5206\u76f8\u5173&#xff0c;\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u8dd1\u52a8\u8ddd\u79bb\u5dee\u3001\u53d1\u7403\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u662f\u5426\u4e0a\u7f51\u3001\u80dc\u7387&#xff1b;\u03b2i\u200b(i&#061;2,3,4,5)\u8868\u793a\u5176\u4ed6\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"5.2%20%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E4%BC%B0%E8%AE%A1%EF%BC%9A%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%BC%E7%84%B6%E4%BC%B0%E8%AE%A1%EF%BC%88MLE%EF%BC%89\">5.2 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id=\"5.3%20%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E4%B8%8E%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE%E6%A3%80%E9%AA%8C%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C\">5.3 \u56de\u5f52\u4e0e\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c<\/h4>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\u8868\u6240\u793a&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\u53d8\u91cf\u540d\u79f0\u56de\u5f52\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u503ct \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cfp \u503c\u56de\u5f52\u53c2\u6570\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u52bf\u5934<\/td>\n<td>1.500<\/td>\n<td>35.347<\/td>\n<td>&lt; 0.001<\/td>\n<td>(1.0052, 1.9939)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u8dd1\u52a8\u8ddd\u79bb\u5dee<\/td>\n<td>-0.004<\/td>\n<td>0.065<\/td>\n<td>0.798<\/td>\n<td>(-0.0316, 0.0243)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53d1\u7403\u65b9\u53ca\u53d1\u7403\u901f\u5ea6<\/td>\n<td>0.008<\/td>\n<td>35.446<\/td>\n<td>&lt; 0.001<\/td>\n<td>(0.0052, 0.0103)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u662f\u5426\u4e0a\u7f51\u5f97\u5206<\/td>\n<td>-0.251<\/td>\n<td>0.704<\/td>\n<td>0.402<\/td>\n<td>(-0.8384, -0.3358)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u80dc\u7387<\/td>\n<td>-1.994<\/td>\n<td>7.613<\/td>\n<td>0.006<\/td>\n<td>(-3.4111, -0.5777)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u622a\u8ddd\u9879<\/td>\n<td>0.883<\/td>\n<td>5.512<\/td>\n<td>0.019<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u4ece\u8868\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa&#xff0c;\u52bf\u5934\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 t \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684 p \u503c\u8fdc\u5c0f\u4e8e 0.05&#xff0c;\u4e14\u03b21\u200b\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e0d\u5305\u542b 0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u62d2\u7edd\u539f\u5047\u8bbeH0\u200b&#xff0c;\u5373\u52bf\u5934\u4e0e\u5f97\u5206\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"6.%20%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%203%EF%BC%9A%E5%8A%BF%E5%A4%B4%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E3%80%81%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E5%8F%8A%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\">6. 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decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194140-697a6674f1555.png\" width=\"945\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 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id=\"6.1.2%20%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%9E%84%E5%BB%BA\">6.1.2 \u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa<\/h5>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u4e0e\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u30fb\u963f\u5c14\u5361\u62c9\u65af\u7684 334 \u5206\u6bd4\u8d5b\u6570\u636e&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6b65\u9aa4\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p>\u6b65\u9aa4 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id=\"6.1.3%20%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\">6.1.3 \u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5206\u6790<\/h5>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 R 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loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194141-697a66752fd93.png\" width=\"830\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 9&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934\u53ca\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<h5 id=\"6.1.4%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0\">6.1.4 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\u7403\u3001\u8d5b\u70b9\u3001\u8dd1\u52a8\u8ddd\u79bb\u3001\u56de\u5408\u6570\u3001\u5236\u80dc\u5206\u3001\u53cc\u8bef\u3001\u4e0a\u7f51\u6b21\u6570\u3001\u4e0a\u7f51\u5f97\u5206\u3001\u7834\u53d1\u70b9\u3001\u7834\u53d1\u6210\u529f\u3001\u9519\u5931\u7834\u53d1\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9 12 \u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u52bf\u5934\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u7a0b\u5ea6&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528 p \u503c\u548c\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u6307\u6807\u3002p \u503c\u65b9\u9762&#xff0c;P&lt;0.05\u8868\u793a\u8be5\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u52bf\u5934\u53d8\u5316\u663e\u8457\u76f8\u5173&#xff1b;\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u4ee5 0 \u4e3a\u754c\u9650&#xff0c;\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd1 1 \u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8d8a\u5f3a&#xff0c;\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd1 &#8211; 1 \u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8d8a\u5f3a\u3002\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u5bfc\u5165 Origin \u8f6f\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u5f97\u5230\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\u56fe&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"840\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194141-697a6675565df.png\" width=\"1178\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"841\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194141-697a6675df6d9.png\" width=\"1136\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 10&#xff1a;\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\u56fe 1&#xff1b;\u56fe 11&#xff1a;\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\u56fe 2&#xff09;<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"6.3%20%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\">6.3 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id=\"6.3.2%20%E9%92%88%E5%AF%B9%E5%8A%BF%E5%A4%B4%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A%E5%9E%8B%E9%80%89%E6%89%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\">6.3.2 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id=\"7.%20%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%204%EF%BC%9A%E6%8B%93%E5%B1%95%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%20%E2%80%94%E2%80%94%20%E5%A5%B3%E5%AD%90%E7%BD%91%E7%90%83%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%92%E4%B9%93%E7%90%83%E6%AF%94%E8%B5%9B\">7. \u4efb\u52a1 4&#xff1a;\u62d3\u5c55\u6d4b\u8bd5 \u2014\u2014 \u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u4e0e\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e3a\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u901a\u7528\u6027&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u548c\u4e00\u573a\u5973\u5b50\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790&#xff0c;\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u8be6\u89c1 1.4 \u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5206\u6790\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u826f\u597d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b&#xff0c;\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u63d0\u5347\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u7f51\u7403\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u6027\u522b\u5dee\u5f02&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u53d1\u7403\u4f18\u52bf\u4fee\u6b63\u7cfb\u6570&#xff08;\u03b4&#xff09;\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u62df\u5408\u5ea6&#xff0c;\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u6027\u80fd\u4f18\u5f02\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5973\u5b50\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5206\u6790\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c&#xff0c;\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u5b9e\u65f6\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u6781\u503c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b&#xff0c;\u76f8\u5bf9\u6b20\u4f73\u3002\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u540e&#xff0c;\u6781\u503c\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u6709\u660e\u663e\u63d0\u5347&#xff0c;\u4f46\u4e0e\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4ecd\u4e0d\u591f\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0&#xff0c;\u51c6\u786e\u523b\u753b\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u5c06\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u672a\u6765\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"7.1%20%E5%A5%B3%E5%AD%90%E7%BD%91%E7%90%83%E6%AF%94%E8%B5%9B%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF\">7.1 \u5973\u5b50\u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u573a\u666f<\/h4>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u53d6 2023 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f51\u7403\u516c\u5f00\u8d5b\u5973\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u51b3\u8d5b\u4e2d\u53ef\u53ef\u30fb\u9ad8\u8299\u4e0e\u963f\u4e3d\u5a1c\u30fb\u8428\u5df4\u4f26\u5361\u7684\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u53ef\u53ef\u30fb\u9ad8\u8299\u4ee5 2-6\u30016-3\u30016-2 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12&#xff1a;\u4f18\u5316\u524d\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u56fe\u4e2d\u7ea2\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u5b9e\u9645\u52bf\u5934&#xff0c;\u84dd\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u52bf\u5934&#xff0c;\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8&#xff0c;\u8868\u660e\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f&#xff0c;\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5f00\u59cb\u548c\u7ed3\u675f\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u503c\u5dee\u5f02\u8f83\u5927&#xff0c;\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f83\u9ad8&#xff0c;\u4e14\u6307\u6807\u96be\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u6bd4\u8d5b\u52a8\u6001&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f4\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u8f83\u5927&#xff1b;\u800c\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u5347&#xff0c;\u8bf4\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8be5\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u4f18\u3002\u7b2c 60 \u5206\u548c\u7b2c 120 \u5206\u5904\u5b9e\u9645\u52bf\u5934\u51fa\u73b0\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8&#xff0c;\u4f46\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u672a\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u6355\u6349&#xff0c;\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u672a\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u7a81\u53d1\u60c5\u51b5\u6216\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u4f18\u5316\u540e&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b&#xff08;Wt\u200b&#061;\u03b4&#043;Mt\u200b&#043;\u03c4t\u200b&#xff09;\u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u7403\u4f18\u52bf\u4fee\u6b63\u7cfb\u6570\u03b4\u6539\u4e3a 0.005&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8&#xff0c;\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7 \u201c\u4f18\u5316\u540e\u201d \u6240\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6539\u8fdb\u53ef\u80fd\u6e90\u4e8e\u7537\u5973\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u8d5b\u5236\u5dee\u5f02 \u2014\u2014 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id=\"7.2%20%E4%B9%92%E4%B9%93%E7%90%83%E6%AF%94%E8%B5%9B%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF\">7.2 \u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u573a\u666f<\/h4>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u53d6 2020 \u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u804c\u4e1a\u5927\u8054\u76df&#xff08;WTT&#xff09;\u6fb3\u95e8\u7ad9\u5973\u5b50\u5355\u6253\u534a\u51b3\u8d5b\u4e2d\u738b\u66fc\u6631\u4e0e\u5b59\u9896\u838e\u7684\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728 2020 \u5e74 WTT \u6fb3\u95e8\u7ad9\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\u5bf9\u51b3\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u5b59\u9896\u838e\u4ee5 5-1 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13&#xff1a;\u4f18\u5316\u524d\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u7ea2\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u5b9e\u9645\u52bf\u5934\u503c&#xff0c;\u84dd\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u52bf\u5934\u503c\u3002\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u9884\u6d4b\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d34\u5408\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8&#xff0c;\u8868\u660e\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u8d8b\u52bf\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u903c\u8fd1\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c&#xff0c;\u4e24\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650\u6027&#xff0c;\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u6781\u503c\u70b9\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u8868\u660e&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u7eb3\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u8d5b\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u53d8\u91cf&#xff0c;\u6216\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u91cd\u65b0\u8d4b\u4e88\u6743\u91cd&#xff0c;\u4ee5\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u52bf\u5934\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u6b64\u5916&#xff0c;\u8be5\u5206\u6790\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u6355\u6349\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u5f85\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u56e0\u6b64&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u03c6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8c03\u6574&#xff0c;\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u5ea6&#xff0c;\u63d0\u9ad8\u6781\u503c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u4ecd\u53ef\u770b\u51fa&#xff0c;\u4f30\u8ba1\u6548\u679c\u4ecd\u9700\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u63a8\u6d4b\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e52\u4e53\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8282\u594f\u5feb\u3001\u53d8\u5316\u591a&#xff0c;\u9700\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u5907\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6765\u6355\u6349\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u7684\u7ec6\u5fae\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316&#xff0c;\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u7eb3\u5165\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u56e0\u6b64&#xff0c;\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u523b\u753b\u80fd\u529b\u5c06\u662f\u672a\u6765\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"8.%20%E6%95%8F%E6%84%9F%E6%80%A7%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\">8. \u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b \u2014\u2014 \u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e38\u6570\u4e0e\u9009\u624b\u81ea\u8eab\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173&#xff0c;\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4e0e\u9009\u624b\u4e2a\u4eba\u80fd\u529b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u03c6\u548c\u4e0e\u9009\u624b\u53d1\u7403\u5b9e\u529b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d1\u7403\u4f18\u52bf\u4fee\u6b63\u9879\u03b4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027&#xff0c;\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u9664\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u30fb\u963f\u5c14\u5361\u62c9\u65af\u548c\u8bfa\u74e6\u514b\u30fb\u5fb7\u7ea6\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4f59 30 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src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260128194143-697a66777d4e9.png\" width=\"655\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#xff08;\u56fe 14&#xff1a;\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u4e09\u7ef4\u56fe&#xff09;<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa&#xff0c;\u5404\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u5747\u9ad8\u4e8e 70%&#xff0c;\u5176\u4e2d\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387 3 \u7ec4 &#8211; \u4e2a\u4eba\u80fd\u529b 3 \u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u6700\u4f4e&#xff0c;\u4e3a 72%&#xff1b;\u53d1\u7403\u5f97\u5206\u7387 1 \u7ec4 &#8211; \u4e2a\u4eba\u80fd\u529b 1 \u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u6700\u9ad8&#xff0c;\u4e3a 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ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u6709\u9650\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 id=\"%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3\">\u4e0d\u8db3<\/h4>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u6355\u6349\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u5f85\u63d0\u5347&#xff0c;\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u523b\u753b\u80fd\u529b\u5c06\u662f\u672a\u6765\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83%E6%96%87%E7%8C%AE\">\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/h3>\n<p>[1] Pilar Poncela. Time series analysis by state space methods: J. Durbin and S.J. Koopman, Oxford Statistical Series 24, 2001, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-852354-8, 254 pages, price: \u00a336.00 (hardback)[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, Vol.20(1): 139-141.[2] Manner, H. (2015). Modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games. Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Cologne.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E5%A4%87%E5%BF%98%E5%BD%95\">\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55<\/h3>\n<p>\u81f4&#xff1a;\u6559\u7ec3\u53d1\u4ef6\u4eba&#xff1a;2410482 \u53f7\u56e2\u961f\u4e3b\u9898&#xff1a;\u52bf\u5934 \u2014\u2014 \u7f51\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u529b\u91cf\u65e5\u671f&#xff1a;2024 \u5e74 2 \u6708 5 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