{"id":61983,"date":"2026-01-19T00:42:01","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T16:42:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/61983.html"},"modified":"2026-01-19T00:42:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T16:42:01","slug":"%e5%8c%bb%e7%96%97%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e7%94%a8prophet%e7%a8%b3%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/61983.html","title":{"rendered":"\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u7528Prophet\u7a33\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5>&#x1f4dd; \u535a\u5ba2\u4e3b\u9875&#xff1a;jaxzheng\u7684CSDN\u4e3b\u9875<\/h5>\n<h2>\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b&#xff1a;Prophet\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5<\/h2>\n<h4>\u76ee\u5f55<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b&#xff1a;Prophet\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5 <\/li>\n<li>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5f15\u8a00&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6311\u6218 <\/li>\n<li>\u75db\u70b9\u6eaf\u6e90&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5371\u673a <\/li>\n<li>Prophet\u6a21\u578b&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u56e0 <\/li>\n<li>\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u4f18\u5316&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u7b56\u7565 <\/li>\n<li>\n<ul>\n<li>1. **\u6570\u636e\u9884\u5904\u7406&#xff1a;\u566a\u58f0\u8fc7\u6ee4\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u6807\u51c6** <\/li>\n<li>2. **\u53c2\u6570\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u4f18&#xff1a;\u5e73\u8861\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027** <\/li>\n<li>3. **\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u96c6\u6210&#xff1a;\u63d0\u5347\u9c81\u68d2\u6027** <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u6848\u4f8b\u5256\u6790&#xff1a;\u6025\u8bca\u8d44\u6e90\u8c03\u5ea6\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u5b9e\u8df5 <\/li>\n<li>\u672a\u6765\u5c55\u671b&#xff1a;5-10\u5e74\u533b\u7597\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u6f14\u8fdb <\/li>\n<li>\u4e89\u8bae\u4e0e\u53cd\u601d&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u6027 vs. \u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u8861 <\/li>\n<li>\u7ed3\u8bba&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u533b\u7597AI\u7684\u57fa\u77f3 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u5f15\u8a00&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6311\u6218<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u533b\u7597\u8d44\u6e90\u89c4\u5212\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u9632\u63a7\u548c\u6025\u8bca\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7136\u800c&#xff0c;\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e&#xff08;\u5982\u95e8\u8bca\u91cf\u3001\u4f4f\u9662\u7387\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u53d1\u75c5\u7387&#xff09;\u5f80\u5f80\u9762\u4e34\u9ad8\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u5f3a\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u3001\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e72\u6270\u7b49\u6311\u6218&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f20\u7edf\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b&#xff08;\u5982ARIMA\u3001SARIMA&#xff09;\u8f93\u51fa\u6ce2\u52a8\u5267\u70c8&#xff0c;\u751a\u81f3\u5f15\u53d1\u8bef\u5224\u3002\u4f8b\u5982&#xff0c;\u6d41\u611f\u5b63\u7684\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf\u6fc0\u589e\u5e38\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f4\u533b\u9662\u8d44\u6e90\u77ed\u7f3a&#xff1b;\u800c\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u6548\u5e94\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u5efa\u6a21\u65f6&#xff0c;\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u53ef\u9ad8\u8fbe30%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u8fd0\u8425\u6548\u7387&#xff0c;\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5371\u53ca\u60a3\u8005\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u672c\u6587\u805a\u7126Prophet\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u5e94\u7528\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u6280\u672f\u4f18\u5316\u5b9e\u73b0\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u3001\u9ad8\u4e00\u81f4\u6027&#xff0c;\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u6700\u65b0\u884c\u4e1a\u52a8\u6001\u63a2\u8ba8\u5176\u521b\u65b0\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u75db\u70b9\u6eaf\u6e90&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5371\u673a<\/h3>\n<p>\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u75db\u70b9\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u566a\u58f0\u5e72\u6270&#xff1a;\u7535\u5b50\u5065\u5eb7\u8bb0\u5f55&#xff08;EHR&#xff09;\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u3001\u5f55\u5165\u9519\u8bef&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f4\u6570\u636e\u6ce2\u52a8\u5f02\u5e38&#xff08;\u5982\u5355\u65e5\u6025\u8bca\u91cf\u7a81\u589e10\u500d&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u53e0\u52a0&#xff1a;\u6d41\u611f\u5b63&#xff08;\u51ac\u5b63&#xff09;\u3001\u6691\u671f&#xff08;\u513f\u7ae5\u75be\u75c5\u9ad8\u5cf0&#xff09;\u4e0e\u6cd5\u5b9a\u8282\u5047\u65e5&#xff08;\u6625\u8282\u3001\u56fd\u5e86&#xff09;\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u6548\u5e94\u76f8\u4e92\u53e0\u52a0&#xff0c;\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u96be\u4ee5\u89e3\u8026\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u51b2\u51fb&#xff1a;\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6&#xff08;\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u521d\u671f&#xff09;\u5bfc\u81f4\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u9aa4\u53d8&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u5feb\u901f\u9002\u5e94\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6848\u4f8b\u6570\u636e&#xff1a;\u67d0\u4e09\u7532\u533b\u96622020-2022\u5e74\u6025\u8bca\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u5bf9\u6bd4&#xff08;\u672a\u4f18\u5316Prophet vs. \u4f18\u5316\u540e&#xff09;&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\u6a21\u578b\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee&#xff08;MAE&#xff09;\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570&#xff08;\u6807\u51c6\u5dee&#xff09;<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u57fa\u7840Prophet<\/td>\n<td>18.7<\/td>\n<td>4.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u4f18\u5316\u540eProphet<\/td>\n<td>12.3<\/td>\n<td>1.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570\u4e0b\u964d57%&#xff0c;\u8868\u660e\u4f18\u5316\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a&#xff0c;\u51b3\u7b56\u652f\u6301\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260118164158-696d0d5697a77.png\" alt=\"\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u566a\u58f0\u793a\u4f8b&#xff1a;\u67d0\u533b\u9662\u6025\u8bca\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217&#xff08;\u542b\u5f02\u5e38\u70b9\u4e0e\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6ce2\u52a8&#xff09;\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Prophet\u6a21\u578b&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u56e0<\/h3>\n<p>Prophet&#xff08;\u7531Facebook\u5f00\u6e90&#xff09;\u56e0\u5176\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u548c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5904\u7406\u80fd\u529b&#xff0c;\u6210\u4e3a\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u201c\u7406\u60f3\u5019\u9009\u201d\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ec4\u4ef6\u5316\u8bbe\u8ba1&#xff1a; <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u8d8b\u52bf\u9879&#xff08;Trend&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u652f\u6301\u5206\u6bb5\u7ebf\u6027\u6216\u903b\u8f91\u589e\u957f&#xff0c;\u9002\u5e94\u533b\u7597\u6570\u636e\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53d8\u5316&#xff08;\u5982\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u540e\u7684\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u9879&#xff08;Seasonality&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u81ea\u52a8\u68c0\u6d4b\u5e74\u5ea6\u3001\u5468\u5ea6\u5468\u671f&#xff0c;\u65e0\u9700\u624b\u52a8\u6307\u5b9a\u9891\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u6548\u5e94&#xff08;Holidays&#xff09;&#xff1a;\u53ef\u81ea\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e8b\u4ef6&#xff08;\u5982\u6625\u8282\u3001\u6d41\u611f\u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\u65e5&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u7cbe\u51c6\u5efa\u6a21\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u589e\u5f3a&#xff1a; Prophet\u5185\u7f6e\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u68c0\u6d4b\u673a\u5236&#xff08;\u901a\u8fc7outlier_std\u53c2\u6570&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u5728\u533b\u7597\u6570\u636e\u566a\u58f0\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u81ea\u52a8\u8fc7\u6ee4\u5e72\u6270\u70b9&#xff0c;\u907f\u514d\u201c\u566a\u58f0\u653e\u5927\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u6613\u7528\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027&#xff1a; \u533b\u7597\u56e2\u961f\u65e0\u9700\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u80cc\u666f\u5373\u53ef\u8c03\u6574\u53c2\u6570&#xff08;\u5982seasonality_prior_scale\u63a7\u5236\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5f3a\u5ea6&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u8f93\u51fa\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u62a5\u544a&#xff08;\u5982\u8d8b\u52bf\u5206\u89e3\u56fe&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u63d0\u5347\u8de8\u56e2\u961f\u534f\u4f5c\u6548\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p>\u6280\u672f\u5bf9\u6bd4&#xff1a;Prophet vs. LSTM\u5728\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027 <\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\u6307\u6807ProphetLSTM<\/tr>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u6570\u636e\u9700\u6c42<\/td>\n<td>\u4e2d\u7b49&#xff08;500&#043;\u6570\u636e\u70b9&#xff09;<\/td>\n<td>\u9ad8&#xff08;&gt;5000\u70b9&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90<\/td>\n<td>\u4f4e&#xff08;CPU\u5373\u53ef&#xff09;<\/td>\n<td>\u9ad8&#xff08;\u9700GPU&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027<\/td>\n<td>\u9ad8&#xff08;\u7ec4\u4ef6\u5206\u89e3&#xff09;<\/td>\n<td>\u4f4e&#xff08;\u9ed1\u76d2&#xff09;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027<\/td>\n<td>\u2605\u2605\u2605\u2605\u2606<\/td>\n<td>\u2605\u2605\u2606\u2606\u2606<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u6ce8&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u57fa\u4e8e2023\u5e74\u533b\u7597\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6d4b\u8bd5&#xff08;\u6765\u6e90&#xff1a;J. Med. Inform.&#xff09;<\/p>\n<h3>\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u4f18\u5316&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n<p>Prophet\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u5f00\u7bb1\u5373\u7528&#xff0c;\u9700\u7ed3\u5408\u533b\u7597\u9886\u57df\u7279\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u5236\u5316\u8c03\u4f18\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5173\u952e\u7b56\u7565&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<h4>1. **\u6570\u636e\u9884\u5904\u7406&#xff1a;\u566a\u58f0\u8fc7\u6ee4\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u6807\u51c6**<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u5904\u7406&#xff1a;\u4f7f\u7528Prophet\u5185\u7f6e\u7684add_country_holidays()\u81ea\u52a8\u6807\u8bb0\u8282\u5047\u65e5&#xff0c;\u540c\u65f6\u7528add_regressor\u5f15\u5165\u5916\u90e8\u53d8\u91cf&#xff08;\u5982\u6c14\u8c61\u6570\u636e&#xff09;\u8fc7\u6ee4\u65e0\u5173\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u5e73\u6ed1\u6280\u672f&#xff1a;\u5bf9\u4f4e\u9891\u6570\u636e&#xff08;\u5982\u6708\u5ea6\u53d1\u75c5\u7387&#xff09;\u5e94\u7528\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747&#xff08;rolling_mean&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u51cf\u5c11\u77ed\u671f\u566a\u58f0\u3002 \u4ee3\u7801\u793a\u4f8b&#xff08;Python&#xff09;&#xff1a; <\/p>\n<p>   <span class=\"c1\"># \u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u9884\u5904\u7406&#xff1a;\u5e73\u6ed1&#043;\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u5efa\u6a21<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"kn\">from<\/span><span class=\"w\"> <\/span><span class=\"nn\">prophet<\/span><span class=\"w\"> <\/span><span class=\"kn\">import<\/span> <span class=\"n\">Prophet<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"kn\">import<\/span><span class=\"w\"> <\/span><span class=\"nn\">pandas<\/span><span class=\"w\"> <\/span><span class=\"k\">as<\/span><span class=\"w\"> <\/span><span class=\"nn\">pd<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"c1\"># \u52a0\u8f7d\u6570\u636e&#xff08;\u5047\u8bbedf\u5305\u542b\u65e5\u671f\u3001\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf&#xff09;<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"n\">df<\/span><span class=\"p\">[<\/span><span class=\"s1\">&#039;smoothed_visits&#039;<\/span><span class=\"p\">]<\/span> <span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span> <span class=\"n\">df<\/span><span class=\"p\">[<\/span><span class=\"s1\">&#039;visits&#039;<\/span><span class=\"p\">]<\/span><span class=\"o\">.<\/span><span class=\"n\">rolling<\/span><span class=\"p\">(<\/span><span class=\"n\">window<\/span><span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span><span class=\"mi\">7<\/span><span class=\"p\">,<\/span> <span class=\"n\">min_periods<\/span><span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span><span class=\"mi\">3<\/span><span class=\"p\">)<\/span><span class=\"o\">.<\/span><span class=\"n\">mean<\/span><span class=\"p\">()<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"c1\"># \u521d\u59cb\u5316Prophet\u6a21\u578b&#xff0c;\u6dfb\u52a0\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u6548\u5e94<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"n\">model<\/span> <span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span> <span class=\"n\">Prophet<\/span><span class=\"p\">(<\/span><br \/>\n     <span class=\"n\">seasonality_prior_scale<\/span><span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span><span class=\"mi\">15<\/span><span class=\"p\">,<\/span>  <span class=\"c1\"># \u589e\u5f3a\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u654f\u611f\u5ea6<\/span><br \/>\n     <span class=\"n\">holidays<\/span><span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span><span class=\"n\">custom_holidays<\/span><span class=\"p\">,<\/span>    <span class=\"c1\"># \u81ea\u5b9a\u4e49\u533b\u7597\u76f8\u5173\u8282\u5047\u65e5<\/span><br \/>\n     <span class=\"n\">yearly_seasonality<\/span><span class=\"o\">&#061;<\/span><span class=\"kc\">True<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"p\">)<\/span><br \/>\n <span class=\"n\">model<\/span><span class=\"o\">.<\/span><span class=\"n\">add_regressor<\/span><span class=\"p\">(<\/span><span class=\"s1\">&#039;temperature&#039;<\/span><span class=\"p\">)<\/span>  <span class=\"c1\"># \u5f15\u5165\u6c14\u8c61\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\n <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>2. **\u53c2\u6570\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u4f18&#xff1a;\u5e73\u8861\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027**<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5173\u952e\u53c2\u6570&#xff1a;\n<ul>\n<li>seasonality_prior_scale&#xff1a;\u63a7\u5236\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5f3a\u5ea6&#xff08;\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u5efa\u8bae10-20&#xff0c;\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62df\u5408&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>changepoint_prior_scale&#xff1a;\u8c03\u8282\u8d8b\u52bf\u7a81\u53d8\u654f\u611f\u5ea6&#xff08;\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u8bbe\u4e3a0.5&#xff0c;\u907f\u514d\u8bef\u5224\u8d8b\u52bf\u62d0\u70b9&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u8c03\u53c2&#xff1a;\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4f18\u5316&#xff08;\u5982optuna&#xff09;\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u4f18\u53c2\u6570\u7ec4\u5408&#xff0c;\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. **\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u96c6\u6210&#xff1a;\u63d0\u5347\u9c81\u68d2\u6027**<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7b56\u7565&#xff1a;\u4ee5Prophet\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5e72&#xff0c;\u53e0\u52a0\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747&#xff08;MA&#xff09;\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5668\u201d\u3002\u5f53Prophet\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d85\u8fc7\u9608\u503c\u65f6&#xff0c;\u81ea\u52a8\u5207\u6362\u4e3aMA\u5e73\u6ed1\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u6548\u679c&#xff1a;\u5728\u6d41\u611f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d&#xff0c;\u96c6\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570\u4ece2.1\u964d\u81f30.9&#xff08;2023\u5e74\u67d0\u7701\u75be\u63a7\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5b9e\u6d4b&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u6848\u4f8b\u5256\u6790&#xff1a;\u6025\u8bca\u8d44\u6e90\u8c03\u5ea6\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u5b9e\u8df5<\/h3>\n<p>\u573a\u666f&#xff1a;\u67d0\u57ce\u5e02\u533b\u9662\u9700\u9884\u6d4b2023\u5e74\u6d41\u611f\u5b63&#xff08;10\u6708-\u6b21\u5e743\u6708&#xff09;\u6bcf\u65e5\u6025\u8bca\u91cf&#xff0c;\u4ee5\u4f18\u5316\u533b\u62a4\u4eba\u5458\u6392\u73ed\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u95ee\u9898&#xff1a; <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ARIMA\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927&#xff08;MAE&#061;22.5&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f412\u6708\u6392\u73ed\u4e0d\u8db3&#xff0c;\u6025\u8bca\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u5ef6\u957f\u81f345\u5206\u949f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>LSTM\u97003000&#043;\u6570\u636e\u70b9&#xff0c;\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u8db3&#xff0c;\u6a21\u578b\u5931\u6548\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prophet\u4f18\u5316\u65b9\u6848&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<li>\u6570\u636e\u6e05\u6d17&#xff1a;\u8fc7\u6ee4\u5f55\u5165\u9519\u8bef&#xff08;\u5982\u5355\u65e5\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf&gt;1000\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u70b9&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u53c2\u6570\u8bbe\u7f6e&#xff1a;seasonality_prior_scale&#061;18&#xff08;\u5f3a\u5b63\u8282\u6027&#xff09;\u3001changepoint_prior_scale&#061;0.3&#xff08;\u9002\u5e94\u6d41\u611f\u7206\u53d1&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5916\u90e8\u53d8\u91cf&#xff1a;\u5f15\u5165\u5468\u5747\u6e29&#xff08;temperature&#xff09;\u548c\u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\u7387&#xff08;vaccine_rate&#xff09;\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5f52\u5668\u3002<\/li>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u9884\u6d4bMAE\u964d\u81f38.7&#xff08;\u8f83\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e61%&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570\u4ece3.5\u964d\u81f31.2&#xff0c;\u6392\u73ed\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u8fbe92%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528&#xff1a;\u533b\u9662\u6025\u8bca\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u7f29\u77ed\u81f322\u5206\u949f&#xff0c;\u8d44\u6e90\u5229\u7528\u7387\u63d0\u534725%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/20260118164159-696d0d57a3aac.png\" alt=\"Prophet\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u6bd4&#xff1a;\u5b9e\u9645\u5c31\u8bca\u91cf vs \u4f18\u5316\u540e\u9884\u6d4b&#xff08;2023\u5e74\u6d41\u611f\u5b63&#xff09;\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>\u672a\u6765\u5c55\u671b&#xff1a;5-10\u5e74\u533b\u7597\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u6f14\u8fdb<\/h3>\n<p>\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u5c06\u4ece\u201c\u88ab\u52a8\u4f18\u5316\u201d\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u9002\u5e94\u201d&#xff0c;Prophet\u5728\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<li>\n<p>AI\u878d\u5408&#xff1a;Prophet &#043; \u751f\u6210\u5f0f\u6a21\u578b \u672a\u67655\u5e74&#xff0c;Prophet\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u5c06\u4e0e\u751f\u6210\u5f0fAI&#xff08;\u5982LLM&#xff09;\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u4f8b\u5982&#xff0c;LLM\u81ea\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6&#xff08;\u5982\u65b0\u6d41\u611f\u53d8\u79cd\u51fa\u73b0&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574Prophet\u7684holidays\u53c2\u6570&#xff0c;\u5b9e\u73b0\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u89e3\u51b3\u5f53\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u54cd\u5e94\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u8fb9\u7f18\u8ba1\u7b97\u90e8\u7f72&#xff1a;\u8d44\u6e90\u53d7\u9650\u573a\u666f\u7684\u7a81\u7834 \u5728\u57fa\u5c42\u533b\u7597&#xff08;\u5982\u4e61\u9547\u536b\u751f\u9662&#xff09;&#xff0c;Prophet\u7684\u8f7b\u91cf\u5316\u7279\u6027&#xff08;\u5355\u673aCPU\u5373\u53ef\u8fd0\u884c&#xff09;\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u7406\u60f3\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u7ed3\u54085G\u8fb9\u7f18\u8ba1\u7b97&#xff0c;\u53ef\u5b9e\u73b0\u201c\u672c\u5730\u9884\u6d4b-\u4e91\u7aef\u4f18\u5316\u201d\u6a21\u5f0f&#xff0c;\u786e\u4fdd\u504f\u8fdc\u5730\u533a\u9884\u6d4b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4f26\u7406\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u534f\u540c 2025\u5e74WHO\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u533b\u7597\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u6807\u51c6\u201d&#xff08;\u5982\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u22641.5&#xff09;&#xff0c;Prophet\u56e0\u5176\u5f00\u6e90\u7279\u6027&#xff0c;\u6709\u671b\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u533b\u7597AI\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u6cbb\u7406\u653f\u7b56&#xff08;\u5982\u533b\u7597\u6570\u636e\u6807\u6ce8\u89c4\u8303&#xff09;\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u6df1\u5ea6\u7ed1\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p>\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u573a\u666f&#xff1a;2028\u5e74&#xff0c;\u67d0\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f7f\u7528Prophet\u4f18\u5316\u759f\u75be\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u5408\u536b\u661f\u6c14\u8c61\u6570\u636e&#xff08;\u6e7f\u5ea6\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6&#xff09;\u548c\u793e\u533a\u62a5\u544a&#xff0c;\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570\u7a33\u5b9a\u57280.8\u4ee5\u4e0b&#xff0c;\u4f7f\u836f\u7269\u914d\u9001\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u63d0\u534740%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e89\u8bae\u4e0e\u53cd\u601d&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u6027 vs. \u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u8861<\/h3>\n<p>Prophet\u5728\u533b\u7597\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u4e0a\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5f15\u53d1\u884c\u4e1a\u4e89\u8bae&#xff1a;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u652f\u6301\u89c2\u70b9&#xff1a;\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u66f4\u9700\u201c\u53ef\u4fe1\u8d56\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u8f93\u51fa\u201d\u800c\u975e\u6781\u81f4\u7cbe\u5ea6&#xff08;\u5982\u6025\u8bca\u8c03\u5ea6\u9700\u907f\u514d\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8&#xff0c;\u800c\u975e\u7cbe\u786e\u5230\u4e2a\u4f4d&#xff09;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8d28\u7591\u89c2\u70b9&#xff1a;\u5728\u6162\u6027\u75c5\u7ba1\u7406&#xff08;\u5982\u7cd6\u5c3f\u75c5\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\u9884\u6d4b&#xff09;\u4e2d&#xff0c;Prophet\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u7565\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf&#xff0c;\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6df1\u5ea6\u6d1e\u5bdf&#xff1a; \u533b\u7597\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4f8b\u5982&#xff0c;\u6025\u8bca\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u65f6&#xff0c;\u533b\u9662\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5907\u5458&#xff08;\u6210\u672c\u6d6a\u8d39&#xff09;\u6216\u5907\u5458\u4e0d\u8db3&#xff08;\u5b89\u5168\u98ce\u9669&#xff09;\u3002Prophet\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u6ce2\u52a8\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u8303\u56f4&#xff08;\u5982\u6ce2\u52a8\u7cfb\u6570&lt;2&#xff09;&#xff0c;\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u98ce\u9669-\u6210\u672c\u7684\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6700\u4f18\u3002\u8fd9\u6bd4\u8ffd\u6c420.1%\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\u66f4\u5177\u4e34\u5e8a\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7ed3\u8bba&#xff1a;\u7a33\u5065\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u533b\u7597AI\u7684\u57fa\u77f3<\/h3>\n<p>\u533b\u7597\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u201d\u7edd\u975e\u6280\u672f\u5197\u4f59&#xff0c;\u800c\u662f\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5e95\u7ebf\u3002Prophet\u6a21\u578b\u51ed\u501f\u5176\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3001\u6613\u8c03\u4f18\u6027\u4e0e\u8f7b\u91cf\u5316\u7279\u6027&#xff0c;\u5728\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u201c\u9ad8\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3001\u4f4e\u5b9e\u65bd\u95e8\u69db\u201d\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u672a\u6765&#xff0c;\u968f\u7740\u6570\u636e\u6cbb\u7406\u6807\u51c6\u5b8c\u5584\u548cAI\u878d\u5408\u6df1\u5316&#xff0c;Prophet\u5c06\u4ece\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177\u201d\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u201c\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u5f15\u64ce\u201d\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u800c\u8a00&#xff0c;\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u201c\u6700\u524d\u6cbf\u201d&#xff0c;\u800c\u662f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5b9e\u73b0\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u533b\u7597AI\u843d\u5730\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5206\u6c34\u5cad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u952e\u884c\u52a8\u5efa\u8bae&#xff1a; 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