{"id":122975,"date":"2026-11-06T04:16:43","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T20:16:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/122975.html"},"modified":"2026-11-06T04:16:43","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T20:16:43","slug":"metr%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4%e5%9c%b0%e5%b9%b3%e7%ba%bf%e6%8b%86%e8%a7%a3%ef%bc%9a14-5%e5%b0%8f%e6%97%b6%e4%b8%8b%e4%bf%ae%e5%88%b012%e5%b0%8f%e6%97%b6%ef%bc%8cagent%e9%95%bf%e4%bb%bb%e5%8a%a1%e6%88%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wsisp.com\/helps\/122975.html","title":{"rendered":"METR\u65f6\u95f4\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u62c6\u89e3\uff1a14.5\u5c0f\u65f6\u4e0b\u4fee\u523012\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0cAgent\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u529f\u7387\u8fd9\u7b14\u8d26\u600e\u4e48\u7b97"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u5148\u4ea4\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u3002METR（Model Evaluation & Threat Research）\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u524d\u6cbf\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u529b\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784，\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7279\u8272\u662f\u4e0d\u770b\u9759\u6001\u8dd1\u5206，\u800c\u662f\u7528"\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b8c\u6210\u540c\u7c7b\u4efb\u52a1\u9700\u8981\u591a\u4e45"\u7ed9\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u529b\u5b9a\u6807\u5c3a\u3002\u8fd9\u5957\u65f6\u95f4\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u6307\u6807\u81ea 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u4ee5\u6765，\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8ba8\u8bba Agent \u81ea\u4e3b\u7eed\u822a\u65f6\u5f15\u7528\u6700\u591a\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u6846\u67b6，\u4e5f\u662f AI 2027 \u7b49\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8f93\u5165\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u8bfb\u61c2\u5b83\u7684\u53e3\u5f84\u4e0e\u8bef\u5dee\u7ed3\u6784，\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e09\u3001\u516d\u5e74\u66f2\u7ebf：\u4ece 2 \u79d2\u5230 12 \u5c0f\u65f6<\/h4>\n

\u628a 2019 \u5230 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u5404\u4ee3\u524d\u6cbf\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u653e\u56de\u8fd9\u5957\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a，METR \u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u6761\u76f8\u5f53\u5e72\u51c0\u7684\u6307\u6570\u66f2\u7ebf：50% \u65f6\u95f4\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u6bcf 207 \u5929\u7ffb\u4e00\u500d，95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 166 \u5230 240 \u5929\u3002GPT-2 \u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u7ea6 2 \u79d2\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u53ea\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\u4eba\u7c7b\u7728\u4e00\u4e0b\u773c\u5c31\u80fd\u505a\u5b8c\u7684\u4e8b；\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u521d，o3 \u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u662f 110 \u5206\u949f，\u516d\u5e74\u95f4\u8de8\u4e86\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7，\u800c\u4e14\u5168\u7a0b\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u51cf\u901f\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

2024 \u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u52a0\u901f\u8ff9\u8c61：\u53ea\u62df\u5408\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5，\u7ffb\u500d\u5468\u671f\u7f29\u77ed\u5230 118 \u5929\u5de6\u53f3\u3002AI Futures Project \u5728 2026 \u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u91cc，\u4e5f\u628a\u539f\u5148\u7684 5.5 \u4e2a\u6708\u7ffb\u500d\u5047\u8bbe\u4fee\u8ba2\u4e3a 4 \u5230 4.5 \u4e2a\u6708，\u7406\u7531\u6b63\u662f METR v1.1 \u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u52a0\u4e0a\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u628a\u51e0\u4e2a\u6709\u516c\u5f00\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u5750\u6807\u70b9\u6446\u5728\u4e00\u8d77，\u52a0\u901f\u6bb5\u7684\u659c\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u4e00\u76ee\u4e86\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\u6a21\u578b\u516c\u5e03\u65f6\u70b950% \u65f6\u95f4\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u5907\u6ce8<\/tr>\n\n\n\n\n\n
GPT-2<\/td>\n2019 \u5e74<\/td>\n\u7ea6 2 \u79d2<\/td>\n\u6307\u6570\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d77\u70b9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
o3<\/td>\n2025 \u5e74\u521d<\/td>\n\u7ea6 110 \u5206\u949f<\/td>\n\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u62a5\u544a\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Claude Opus 4.5<\/td>\n2025 \u5e74\u672b<\/td>\n\u7ea6 5 \u5c0f\u65f6<\/td>\n\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u957f\u8bb0\u5f55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Claude Opus 4.6<\/td>\n2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u521d\u6d4b<\/td>\n14.5 \u5c0f\u65f6（CI 6\u201398 \u5c0f\u65f6）<\/td>\nTH1.1 \u5957\u4ef6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Claude Opus 4.6<\/td>\n2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4fee\u6b63<\/td>\n\u7ea6 12 \u5c0f\u65f6<\/td>\n\u5efa\u6a21 bug \u4fee\u590d\u540e<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u628a\u8fd9\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u653e\u8fdb\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u56fe\u666f\u91cc\u770b，\u5b83\u7684\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u5728\u4e8e"\u8fd8\u6ca1\u9971\u548c"\u3002MMLU\u3001HumanEval \u8fd9\u7c7b\u9759\u6001\u699c\u5355\u65e9\u5df2\u88ab\u9876\u7a7f，SWE-bench Verified \u5934\u90e8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5206\u5dee\u538b\u7f29\u5230\u4e24\u5206\u4ee5\u5185，\u800c\u65f6\u95f4\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u56e0\u4e3a\u951a\u5b9a\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u957f\u4efb\u52a1，\u5929\u82b1\u677f\u968f\u4efb\u52a1\u957f\u5ea6\u81ea\u7136\u62ac\u9ad8\u3002\u5b83\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u4e3a 2026 \u5e74\u5c11\u6570\u8fd8\u80fd\u62c9\u5f00\u6a21\u578b\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5c3a\u5b50，\u4e5f\u662f\u5404\u5bb6\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u5f15\u7528\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5c3a\u5b50\u8d8a\u7a00\u7f3a，\u8bfb\u6570\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6309 123 \u5929\u7ffb\u4e00\u500d\u5916\u63a8，METR \u7814\u7a76\u5458 Ajeya Cotra \u5728 3 \u6708 3 \u65e5\u7684\u590d\u76d8\u6587\u7ae0\u91cc\u7ed9\u51fa\u5e74\u5e95 100 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b，\u5e76\u627f\u8ba4 Opus 4.6 \u5f53\u65f6\u7ea6 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5b9e\u6d4b\u503c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u5979 1 \u6708\u4efd\u5bf9 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u3002\u5979\u5728\u5206\u6790\u91cc\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u7ec6\u8282：\u77ed\u4efb\u52a1\u4e00\u7aef\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fd1\u9971\u548c，\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ee1\u5206\u901a\u8fc7，\u8fd9\u7ed9\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u7aef\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u989d\u5916\u566a\u58f0\u3002\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u4e0b\u4fee\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u94a5\u5319\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56db\u300114.5 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u6210 12 \u5c0f\u65f6<\/h4>\n

\u4e0b\u4fee\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\u5efa\u6a21 bug \u4fee\u590d\u30023 \u6708 3 \u65e5\u4e4b\u524d，Opus 4.6 \u5728 TH1.1 \u4e0a\u7684 50% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4f30\u7b97\u662f 14.5 \u5c0f\u65f6；\u4fee\u590d\u4e4b\u540e\u53d8\u6210 11 \u5c0f\u65f6 59 \u5206\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u539f\u59cb\u8dd1\u5206\u6570\u636e，\u540c\u4e00\u6279\u4efb\u52a1，\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7c7b\u57fa\u7ebf，\u53ea\u662f\u62df\u5408\u4ee3\u7801\u6539\u4e86，\u6307\u6807\u5c31\u7f29\u6c34 17%\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u5341\u5c0f\u65f6\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u91cc，\u62df\u5408\u65b9\u5f0f\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6765\u6e90，\u70b9\u4f4d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u5c0f\u6570\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u6765\u6e90\u662f\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u5929\u7136\u5bbd\u5ea6\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u521d\u6d4b\u7684 14.5 \u5c0f\u65f6，95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e5f\u662f 6 \u5230 98 \u5c0f\u65f6，\u4e0a\u4e0b\u754c\u76f8\u5dee 16 \u500d；\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u7ea6 5.3 \u5230 66 \u5c0f\u65f6，\u5bbd\u5ea6\u4f9d\u7136\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u662f\u4ece\u6709\u9650\u4efb\u52a1\u6837\u672c\u4e0a\u62df\u5408\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf，\u800c\u4e14\u4efb\u52a1\u62bd\u6837\u8bef\u5dee\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u2014\u2014\u540c\u4e00\u6279\u96be\u4efb\u52a1\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u96be\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f，\u5355\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u70b9\u4f4d\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6574\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u659c\u7387\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6，207 \u5929\u7ffb\u500d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u659c\u7387\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u53cd\u800c\u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5bbd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u6765\u6e90\u662f\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u6837\u672c\u7a00\u758f\u3002TH1.1 \u91cc\u4eba\u7c7b\u6807\u5b9a 8 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u53ea\u6709 19 \u4e2a，Opus 4.6 \u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d 14 \u4e2a\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0e\u5426，\u5bf9\u66f2\u7ebf\u53f3\u7aef\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u62c9\u626f\u90fd\u5f88\u5927：\u8fc7 14 \u4e2a\u8fd8\u662f\u8fc7 11 \u4e2a，\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4f30\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u5dee\u51fa\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u6837\u672c\u8fd9\u4e48\u5c11，\u9010\u70b9\u6296\u52a8\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d，\u800c\u6070\u6070\u662f\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e2a\u70b9\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u88ab\u5a92\u4f53\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5916\u90e8\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u628a\u5931\u771f\u673a\u5236\u8bb2\u5f97\u66f4\u76f4\u767d：\u5f53\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9 1 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u77ed\u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u529f\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u6ee1\u5206\u65f6，\u903b\u8f91\u65af\u8482\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5de6\u7aef\u88ab\u9489\u5728 100% \u9644\u8fd1，\u6574\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ea\u5269\u53f3\u7aef\u51e0\u4e2a\u70b9\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f62\u72b6\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u53ea\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u78b0\u5de7\u89e3\u51b3\u4e24\u4e09\u4e2a 8 \u5c0f\u65f6\u7ea7\u7684 RE-Bench \u4efb\u52a1，\u62df\u5408\u51fa\u7684 50% \u4ea4\u70b9\u5c31\u4f1a\u88ab\u62d6\u8fdb 10 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u533a\u57df\u3002718 \u5206\u949f（\u7ea6 12 \u5c0f\u65f6）\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57，\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e24\u4e09\u4e2a\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a，\u800c\u4e0d\u662f"\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e00\u5927\u6279 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fc7\u534a"\u3002\u5de6\u7aef\u9971\u548c\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd，\u53f3\u7aef\u5916\u63a8\u8d8a\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

METR \u81ea\u5df1\u5728 3 \u6708 10 \u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76，\u4ece\u4fa7\u9762\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86"\u8dd1\u5206\u9ad8\u4f30\u5b9e\u6218"：\u5728 SWE-bench \u4e0a\u88ab\u5224\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u8865\u4e01\u91cc，\u7ea6\u4e00\u534a\u653e\u5230\u771f\u5b9e\u5f00\u6e90\u7ef4\u62a4\u8005\u7684\u8bc4\u5ba1\u6807\u51c6\u4e0b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u5408\u5e76\u3002\u57fa\u51c6\u7684"\u901a\u8fc7"\u9608\u503c\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u7684"\u63a5\u53d7"\u9608\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u6307\u6807\u7ee7\u627f\u4e86\u8fd9\u5c42\u5dee\u8ddd\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u5ea6\u91cf\u7684\u662f"\u5728\u57fa\u51c6\u5224\u5b9a\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210"，\u4e0d\u662f"\u4ea4\u4ed8\u5373\u53ef\u7528"\u3002\u8fd9\u5c42\u6298\u635f\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u6298\u635f\u53e0\u52a0，\u624d\u662f\u5de5\u7a0b\u56e2\u961f\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f，\u4e0b\u4fee\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63a8\u7ffb"\u52a0\u901f"\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5927\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u53d6 14.5 \u8fd8\u662f 12，Opus 4.6 \u76f8\u5bf9\u534a\u5e74\u524d Opus 4.5 \u7684 5 \u5c0f\u65f6\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u8dc3\u5347，\u7ffb\u500d\u5468\u671f\u4ecd\u7136\u663e\u8457\u77ed\u4e8e 2019 \u5230 2025 \u5e74\u7684 207 \u5929\u57fa\u7ebf\u3002\u53d8\u7684\u662f\u70b9\u4f4d\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u503c，\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u662f\u659c\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8d8b\u52bf\u6bd4\u4e89\u8bba\u70b9\u4f4d\u66f4\u6709\u5de5\u7a0b\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e94\u3001\u8bfb\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u65f6\u8be5\u6253\u7684\u51e0\u5c42\u6298\u6263<\/h4>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u6298\u6263\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7387\u53e3\u5f84\u300250% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u662f"\u505a\u4e24\u6b21\u6210\u4e00\u6b21"\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027，\u8fd9\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u751f\u4ea7\u573a\u666f\u91cc\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u300280% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u53ea\u6709\u524d\u8005\u7684\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u5de6\u53f3\u2014\u2014Opus 4.6 \u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684 80% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u7ea6 1 \u5c0f\u65f6 10 \u5206\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4，\u5f53\u4f60\u9700\u8981"\u5341\u6b21\u6210\u516b\u6b21"\u7684\u4ea4\u4ed8\u8d28\u91cf\u65f6，2026 \u5e74\u521d\u6700\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u7eed\u822a\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u91cf\u7ea7，\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5341\u4e8c\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u6807\u9898\u91cc\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57，\u548c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57，\u5dee\u7740\u4e94\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u516d\u3001\u628a\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u6298\u7b97\u6210\u5355\u6b65\u53ef\u9760\u6027：\u4e00\u7b14\u590d\u5229\u8d26<\/h4>\n

\u957f\u4efb\u52a1\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u968f\u957f\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u8870\u51cf？\u4e00\u4e2a\u591f\u7528\u7684\u5fc3\u667a\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u628a\u4efb\u52a1\u62c6\u6210 n \u4e2a\u987a\u5e8f\u6b65\u9aa4，\u6bcf\u6b65\u6210\u529f\u7387 p，\u524d\u4e00\u6b65\u5931\u8d25\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u6574\u4f53\u5931\u8d25，\u90a3\u4e48\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387\u5c31\u662f p \u7684 n \u6b21\u65b9\u300212 \u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u6309\u4e00\u5230\u4e24\u5206\u949f\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u5b50\u64cd\u4f5c\u4f30\u7b97，\u5c31\u662f\u51e0\u767e\u4e0a\u5343\u6b65\u7684\u94fe\u6761\u3002p \u8981\u79bb 1 \u591a\u8fd1，\u6574\u4f53\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u4f4f 50%？\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u628a\u5a92\u4f53\u6570\u5b57\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u5de5\u7a0b\u8bed\u8a00\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u53ea\u7528 Python \u6807\u51c6\u5e93，\u628a\u56db\u4e2a\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e0a\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6362\u7b97\u4e00\u6b21\u7b97\u6e05：\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5355\u6b65\u6210\u529f\u7387\u548c\u6b65\u6570\u7b97\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387；\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765，\u7ed9\u5b9a\u6574\u4f53\u76ee\u6807\u89e3\u51fa\u9700\u8981\u7684\u5355\u6b65\u6210\u529f\u7387；\u5e26\u91cd\u8bd5\u673a\u5236\u65f6\u5355\u6b65\u6709\u6548\u6210\u529f\u7387\u7684\u63d0\u5347；\u4ee5\u53ca\u6309 123 \u5929\u7ffb\u500d\u5468\u671f\u5916\u63a8\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u3002\u4ee3\u7801\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4fdd\u5b58\u8fd0\u884c，\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4efb\u4f55\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u5305\u3002<\/p>\n

import math<\/p>\n

def overall(p, n):
\n """n \u4e2a\u987a\u5e8f\u6b65\u9aa4\u3001\u6bcf\u6b65\u6210\u529f\u7387 p \u65f6\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387"""
\n return p ** n<\/p>\n

def required_step(target, n):
\n """\u8981\u5728 n \u6b65\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u8fbe\u5230 target \u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387，\u6bcf\u6b65\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u591a\u9ad8"""
\n return target ** (1.0 \/ n)<\/p>\n

def with_retry(p, k):
\n """\u6bcf\u6b65\u6700\u591a\u5c1d\u8bd5 k \u6b21（\u5047\u8bbe\u5404\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb）\u540e\u7684\u5355\u6b65\u6709\u6548\u6210\u529f\u7387"""
\n return 1.0 – (1.0 – p) ** k<\/p>\n

def horizon_after(h0_hours, days, doubling_days=123):
\n """\u6309\u7ffb\u500d\u5468\u671f\u5916\u63a8 days \u5929\u540e\u7684 50% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf（\u5c0f\u65f6）"""
\n return h0_hours * (2.0 ** (days \/ doubling_days))<\/p>\n

if __name__ == "__main__":
\n # 1) \u4e00\u4e2a 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\u4efb\u52a1\u7ea6 500 \u4e2a\u539f\u5b50\u6b65\u9aa4，\u5355\u6b65 99% \u65f6\u6574\u4f53\u53ea\u5269\u4e0d\u5230 1%
\n print("p=0.99, n=500 \u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387: %.4f" % overall(0.99, 500))
\n # 2) \u8981\u8ba9 500 \u6b65\u4efb\u52a1\u6574\u4f53\u8fbe\u5230 50%\/80%\/95%，\u5355\u6b65\u95e8\u69db\u5206\u522b\u662f\u591a\u5c11
\n for t in (0.50, 0.80, 0.95):
\n print("n=500 \u6574\u4f53 %.0f%% \u9700\u8981\u5355\u6b65: %.5f" % (t * 100, required_step(t, 500)))
\n # 3) \u5355\u6b65 99% \u914d 3 \u6b21\u91cd\u8bd5，\u770b\u6709\u6548\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4e0e 500 \u6b65\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u5316
\n eff = with_retry(0.99, 3)
\n print("p=0.99 \u91cd\u8bd53\u6b21\u540e\u5355\u6b65: %.6f, n=500 \u6574\u4f53: %.4f" % (eff, overall(eff, 500)))
\n # 4) \u4ece 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\u6309 123 \u5929\u7ffb\u500d\u5916\u63a8\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u91cf\u7ea7
\n print("\u4e00\u5e74\u540e 50%% \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u5916\u63a8: %.1f \u5c0f\u65f6" % horizon_after(12, 365))<\/p>\n

\u8dd1\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u51b7\u5cfb\u3002\u5355\u6b65 99%\u3001500 \u6b65\u7684\u4efb\u52a1，\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4e0d\u5230 1%；\u8981\u8ba9 500 \u6b65\u4efb\u52a1\u6574\u4f53\u8fc7 50%，\u5355\u6b65\u6210\u529f\u7387\u8981\u5230 99.861%；\u8981\u5230 95%，\u5355\u6b65\u5f97 99.990%\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f"12 \u5c0f\u65f6\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf"\u5728\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e0a\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u542b\u4e49：\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u4ea4\u4ed8\u534a\u5929\u7684\u6d3b，\u800c\u662f\u8bf4\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5355\u6b65\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ad8\u5230\u80fd\u5728\u51e0\u767e\u6b65\u7684\u94fe\u6761\u4e0a\u5076\u5c14\u8dd1\u901a\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u76f8\u4f3c，\u5bf9\u67b6\u6784\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u5929\u5dee\u5730\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n

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